美国电力部门日间储能的经济潜力-67页_9mb

Storage Futures Study Summary: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector

Introduction

This study, published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in 2021, assesses the economic potential of diurnal storage (duration less than 12 hours) in the U.S. power sector by 2050 using a least-cost optimization model. It explores how factors like variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, battery costs, and grid services influence storage deployment, with the goal of informing energy policy and technology advancement for sustainable grid operations.

Methodology

The research employs the ReEDS capacity expansion model, which simulates the U.S. power system across 134 regions. Scenarios include cost projections for wind, solar PV, natural gas, and battery storage, along with restrictions on grid services (e.g., capacity credit, energy time-shifting, operating reserves). Key assumptions are based on NREL's 2020 Standard Scenarios and include hourly chronological operation to capture grid service value dynamics, emphasizing interactions between storage, VRE, and transmission.

Key Results

• By 2050, diurnal storage deployment ranges from 132 GW (High Battery Cost Case) to 680 GW (Low Battery Cost Case), reflecting a fivefold increase from the 23 GW in 2020.
• Deployment is driven primarily by capacity value and energy arbitrage (time-shifting). Shorter-duration storage (4–6 hours) is deployed first, transitioning to longer durations as capacity grows.
• Variable renewable energy, particularly PV, significantly boosts storage market potential by narrowing net load peaks, increasing demand for storage in peaking and time-shifting services.
• In most scenarios, storage supports VRE penetrations of 43–81%, enabling grid evolution with minimal reliance on seasonal storage within this framework.
• Economic deployment varies by region, with significant storage potential in areas like ERCOT and WECC California, influenced by local load patterns and resource sensitivities.
• Limitations include the exclusion of durations beyond 12 hours, lack of regional distribution-level storage, and oversimplification of grid services, which may underestimate storage's full value.

Discussion and Future Work

The study highlights storage as a critical resource for enhancing grid flexibility and decarbonization, with potential synergies under high renewable scenarios. However, further research is needed on longer-duration storage impacts, demand-side flexibility, and inter-sector coupling (e.g., hydrogen storage). Model caveats emphasize that results assume battery technology advancements and may not capture supply chain constraints or high-penetration renewable scenarios. Overall, diurnal storage offers substantial economic potential, but its full market realization depends on policy support and continued cost reductions.