美国电力部门日间储能的经济潜力_9mb

报告摘要

Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector

Core Content

The Storage Futures Study (SFS) is a multiyear research initiative by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), aimed at exploring the role and economic impact of energy storage in the U.S. power sector. This report, the third in the SFS series, focuses specifically on diurnal storage (storage with durations less than 12 hours) and its potential to support the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV).

The study uses the ReEDS model, a least-cost optimization framework, to simulate the deployment of diurnal storage from 2020 to 2050 under various cost and performance scenarios. It evaluates how the economic potential of diurnal storage evolves alongside the increasing share of VRE in the power mix and how this impacts grid operations, infrastructure investment, and system flexibility.

Main Findings

Market Potential: Diurnal storage is found to be highly competitive economically, with deployment expected to exceed 125 GW by 2050, representing a five-fold increase from the 23 GW of installed storage in 2020.
Battery Storage Growth: In particular, battery storage could grow to at least 3,000 times its current capacity by 2050, depending on cost trajectories and other variables.
Renewable Penetration: VRE penetration could reach 43–81% by 2050, but this is still insufficient to meet deep decarbonization goals.
Duration Impact: Storage duration significantly affects both the cost and value of storage. Most scenarios show 4–6 hours of duration as the most common, but this can vary based on assumptions about natural gas prices and renewable energy cost advancements.
Grid Services: Economic deployment is driven by capacity value and energy arbitrage (time-shifting). The combination of these services is critical for optimal deployment.
PV and Wind Influence: Higher PV penetration leads to narrower net-load peaks in the evening, increasing the capacity value of storage. It also increases the volatility of energy prices, enhancing the time-shifting value.
Regional Variations: The study includes regional analyses (e.g., ERCOT, Great Lakes, MISO, etc.) to evaluate the impact of storage on different parts of the U.S. grid.
Chronological Considerations: Storage is more sensitive to chronology than traditional generators due to its finite duration. The ReEDS model now includes hourly chronological resolution to better capture this sensitivity.
System Flexibility: The study highlights the importance of storage and transmission in enhancing system flexibility and reducing curtailment of renewable generation.

Key Information

Funding: The report is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through several offices, including the Solar Energy Technologies Office, Wind Energy Technologies Office, Water Power Technologies Office, and Office of Strategic Analysis.
Modeling Enhancements: The ReEDS model was expanded to include detailed grid services provided by diurnal storage, such as peak shaving, energy time-shifting, and operating reserve.
Scope Limitations: The study excludes storage with durations less than 2 hours or more than 12 hours and does not consider scenarios with renewable penetration exceeding 80%.
Applicability: While the study focuses on Li-ion batteries, the results are applicable to any storage technology that can achieve the cost and performance projections used as inputs.
Future Work: The study suggests further research into the interaction between diurnal and longer-duration storage under highly decarbonized grid conditions and the relationship between storage and demand-side flexibility.

Structure and Supporting Materials

The report includes the following sections:

Introduction: Provides context on the role of storage in the power sector and the complexity of estimating market potential.
Methods: Model Improvements: Details the ReEDS model enhancements to account for storage duration, chronological operation, and grid services.
Methods: Scenarios and Model Inputs: Lists the resource sensitivity scenarios and storage service restriction scenarios used in the analysis.
Results: National Deployment: Shows national and regional deployment of diurnal storage, with a focus on capacity and energy time-shifting potential.
Results: Drivers of Deployment: Analyzes the drivers behind storage deployment, including VRE growth, price volatility, and grid flexibility.
Results: Other Interactions and Impact of Storage: Examines the interactions between storage, transmission, and curtailment, and the operational implications of storage deployment.
Discussion and Future Work: Outlines future research directions, including longer-duration storage and demand-side flexibility.
References: Lists the academic and technical references used in the study.
Appendix: Contains detailed scenario results, reserve requirements, cost inputs, and regional analyses.

Figures and Tables

Figure ES-1: Shows national storage capacity by duration and across all scenarios.
Figure 1–Figure A-26: Present regional and national storage deployment, capacity credit, energy time-shifting potential, and grid reliability assessments.
Table 1–Table A-5: Summarize resource sensitivity scenarios, storage service restriction scenarios, and cost and performance inputs.

Conclusion

This report underscores the economic potential of diurnal storage in the U.S. power sector and its role in supporting high VRE penetration. It highlights the importance of duration, grid conditions, and price volatility in shaping storage deployment. The ReEDS model now provides a more accurate framework for evaluating storage's role in the evolving power system, setting the stage for further research into longer-duration storage and demand-side flexibility.