2025年技术、媒体与电信（TMT）预测报告_132页_4mb

TMT Predictions 2025 Summary

Core Content

Deloitte's TMT Predictions 2025 outlines a pivotal year for the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector, marked by significant advancements driven by generative AI (gen AI). However, the report identifies eight critical gaps that must be addressed to fully realize the potential of these technologies. It also introduces new trends and updates on previous predictions, emphasizing the need for trust, inclusivity, and sustainability in the industry's growth.

Main Predictions and Gaps

Eight Gaps Identified

1. Gen AI Infrastructure and Monetization Gap
   Companies are investing heavily in gen AI infrastructure, but returns are currently much lower than the investment. The risk of underinvestment is higher than overinvestment, yet the gap persists.

2. Gen AI Data Center Electricity and Sustainability Gap
   Data centers require significant power, but the supply of clean, reliable energy lags behind demand. Efforts to close this gap include using carbon-free energy sources and improving energy efficiency in AI chips and algorithms.

3. Gen AI Gender Gap
   Women are adopting gen AI at a faster rate than men in some markets, but they express less trust in the security of their data. This trust gap may hinder their full engagement with gen AI tools.

4. Gen AI Deepfake Trust Gap
   The rise of deepfake content is challenging consumer trust. Deloitte predicts that the market will evolve similarly to cybersecurity, with detection tools and cryptographic metadata being used to verify authenticity.

5. Studio Gen AI Usage Gap
   While some large studios are cautiously adopting gen AI for content production, others are focusing on operational uses like contract management and marketing. This gap reflects a cautious approach to creative workflows.

6. Autonomous Gen AI Agent Gap
   Autonomous AI agents (agentic AI) are being developed, with Deloitte predicting that 25% of gen AI users will launch pilots in 2025 and 50% by 2027. These agents could improve productivity and workflow efficiency in various industries.

7. Streaming Video Gap
   Consumers are reducing the number of streaming services they subscribe to, leading to a decline in standalone services. Aggregation by intermediaries is expected to help create a more sustainable streaming ecosystem.

8. Cloud Spending Gap
   Despite the promise of cost savings, cloud spending is often poorly managed. The adoption of FinOps strategies is predicted to help organizations optimize spending and link it to business value.

New Predictions and Trends

Women and Generative AI

• Deloitte predicts that women's use of gen AI will equal or exceed that of men in the US by the end of 2025, with similar trends in European countries.
• A trust gap remains, with women less confident in data security. Tech companies must enhance security and reduce bias to address this.

On-Device Generative AI

• Smartphones with on-device gen AI capabilities are expected to see modest growth in 2025.
• These devices will test the value of features like intelligent assistants and conversational interfaces, as well as the business models around AI deployment.

Wireless Telecom Consolidation

• In markets where regulators allow, wireless telecom companies may see increased consolidation in 2025.
• This is driven by the need for long-term investment in networks, especially for smaller operators.

Cloud Gets Lean: FinOps

• Global cloud spending is expected to reach $825 billion in 2025.
• FinOps strategies will help organizations manage costs and improve cloud unit economics.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)

• FWA adoption may continue to grow globally, even if US net adds are expected to slow.
• New enterprise markets and regions outside the US and India are expected to drive growth.

5G Standalone (SA) and 6G Delays

• Deployment of 5G SA is progressing slowly, with only 49 operators globally having launched it by March 2024.
• Deloitte predicts that fewer than 20 additional networks will be upgraded to standalone in 2025, keeping SA at around 12% of all 5G deployments.

Open RAN and Vendor Choice

• Open RAN deployment is lagging behind expectations, with only two multivendor networks globally.
• Deloitte predicts no additional multivendor Open RAN networks will be deployed in 2025.

Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity

• The threat of quantum attacks has reached a tipping point, prompting increased investment in post-quantum cryptography.
• Deloitte predicts that the number of companies working on post-quantum solutions will quadruple in 2025.

RISC-V and Geopolitical Considerations

• RISC-V, an open-source CPU architecture, is gaining traction, especially in gen AI.
• There are concerns about US export restrictions on RISC-V chips, which could impact its use in markets under export control.

Silicon Photonics

• Silicon photonics chips are expected to grow at a 25% CAGR, reaching $1.25 billion in sales by 2025.
• These chips enable faster data communication in gen AI data centers, with lower energy consumption and heat output.

B/OSS Modernization

• Telcos are modernizing their business and operations support systems (B/OSS) by adopting cloud-based SaaS and microservices.
• The global B/OSS market is expected to reach $70 billion by 2025, with cloud solutions growing faster than traditional ones.

Generative AI and Cybersecurity

• Gen AI is expected to increase both cyber threats and opportunities.
• Cybersecurity professionals are exploring ways to use gen AI for threat detection and response.

Chiplets and Moore's Law

• Chiplets are seen as a key enabler for AI and high-performance computing, with global advanced packaging revenue based on chiplets expected to exceed $16 billion by 2025.

Updates from Previous Predictions

• On-Prem AI: Enterprises are adopting on-prem AI infrastructure to protect IP and data, alongside cloud-based solutions.
• Women's Sports Investment: The professionalization and commercialization of women's sports are driving investor interest and record valuations.
• Quantum Readiness: Companies are accelerating efforts to implement post-quantum cryptographic standards.
• RISC-V Export Restrictions: The US is considering restricting RISC-V chip exports due to national security concerns.
• Open RAN Growth: The transition to a multivendor ecosystem is slower than anticipated, with limited progress in 2025.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 is seen as a "gap year" for gen AI, with significant challenges in infrastructure, trust, and adoption.
• The TMT sector is expected to see transformative changes through innovations like agentic AI, FinOps, and silicon photonics.
• Sustainability, inclusivity, and security are central themes across all predictions.
• The role of technology in shaping consumer behavior, business models, and global infrastructure is becoming increasingly critical.

Conclusion

Deloitte emphasizes that addressing these gaps and embracing new trends will be essential for the TMT industry to thrive in the coming years. The report highlights the importance of collaboration between sectors, regulatory support, and proactive strategies in navigating the evolving landscape of technology and media.