德勤2025年技术媒体与电信TMT预测报告英文版132页_4mb

TMT Predictions 2025: Summary

Core Content Overview

Deloitte's TMT Predictions for 2025 highlight a pivotal year for the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector, characterized by significant growth opportunities alongside eight critical gaps that need to be addressed. These gaps span various domains, including AI infrastructure, gender disparities in AI adoption, sustainability, trust in AI-generated content, and operational challenges in the streaming and cloud industries. The report also introduces new sections and topics, focusing on emerging trends and revisiting past predictions.

Main Predictions and Key Gaps

1. Gen AI Infrastructure and Monetization Gap

• Companies are investing heavily in gen AI infrastructure (e.g., chips, data centers), but the return on investment is currently much lower than the investment amount.
• Deloitte suggests that the risk of underinvestment in gen AI is higher than overinvestment, but the gap remains significant.

2. Gen AI Data Center Electricity and Sustainability Gap

• Data centers require massive amounts of clean, reliable energy, but current infrastructure struggles to meet this demand.
• Efforts by hyperscalers, chipmakers, and utilities are ongoing, but the gap is expected to persist in 2025.

3. Gen AI Gender Gap

• Women are less likely to use gen AI tools than men, primarily due to trust concerns.
• Deloitte predicts that women's gen AI adoption will reach parity with men in the US by the end of 2025 and in many European countries within 1–2 years.
• Tech companies are encouraged to improve data security, reduce bias, and increase female representation in AI teams to build trust.

4. Gen AI Deepfake Trust Gap

• The rise of deepfake content is creating a trust deficit in media and online content.
• Deloitte predicts that the market will evolve similarly to cybersecurity, with detection and authentication tools being critical.
• The cost of creating deepfakes is falling, and detection methods must keep pace to maintain trust.

5. Studio Gen AI Usage Gap

• Large studios are cautious about integrating gen AI into creative workflows but are more willing to adopt it for operational tasks.
• Operational use of gen AI is expected to grow by 10%, aiding in contract management, marketing, and content localization.

6. Autonomous Gen AI Agent Gap

• Agentic AI is in early development, with Deloitte predicting that 25% of gen AI users will launch pilots in 2025 and 50% by 2027.
• Potential applications include software development, cybersecurity, and customer support, though widespread adoption may take time.

7. Streaming Video Gap

• Consumers are expected to reduce the number of standalone streaming subscriptions, favoring bundled services.
• Aggregators, including telcos and tech platforms, will play a key role in shaping the future of streaming content distribution.

8. Cloud Spending Gap

• Cloud spending is often poorly managed, leading to inefficiencies.
• Deloitte predicts that more companies will adopt FinOps strategies in 2025 to better control costs and optimize spending, aiming to save up to $21 billion.

New Predictions and Trends

On-Device Generative AI

• Smartphones with on-device gen AI capabilities may see a modest increase in shipments in 2025.
• The success of these features will depend on their practical value, user acceptance, and business models.

Wireless Telecom Consolidation

• Consolidation in wireless markets is expected to accelerate in 2025, especially in regions where regulatory environments allow it.
• This trend is driven by the need for sustainable and scalable networks, particularly in smaller markets.

RISC-V and Geopolitical Considerations

• RISC-V, an open-source chip architecture, is gaining traction, especially in markets facing export restrictions.
• The US is considering export controls on RISC-V chips due to concerns over China's investment in the technology.

Open RAN Challenges

• Open RAN is progressing slowly, with only two global multivendor networks deployed as of March 2024.
• Deloitte predicts no new multivendor Open RAN networks will be launched in 2025.

Quantum Security

• The threat of quantum computing to current encryption methods is prompting companies to invest in post-quantum cryptography.
• Deloitte forecasts a quadrupling of companies and spending on post-quantum security solutions by 2025.

Chiplets and Moore’s Law

• Chiplets are expected to drive growth in advanced packaging, with revenue projected to reach $16 billion by 2025.
• These components offer benefits in AI and high-performance computing by reducing latency, power consumption, and costs.

B/OSS Modernization

• Telcos are modernizing their business and operational support systems (B/OSS) through cloud-based solutions and microservices architecture.
• The global B/OSS market is expected to grow to $70 billion by 2025, with SaaS and cloud solutions growing faster.

Silicon Photonics

• Silicon photonics is emerging as a key enabler for gen AI data centers, with optical transceivers expected to reach $1.25 billion in sales by 2025.
• This technology allows for faster data transfer, lower energy consumption, and reduced heat generation.

Updates from Previous Predictions

• On-Prem AI: More than half of enterprises will invest in on-prem AI infrastructure in 2025, alongside cloud solutions.
• Women’s Sports Investment: Revenue from women’s sports is growing, attracting more investors and sponsors.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): Despite a slowdown in US growth, global FWA adoption is expected to rise by 20% in 2025.
• 5G Standalone: Deployment of 5G standalone networks is lagging, with Deloitte predicting only 12% of all 5G deployments will be standalone by 2025.
• Quantum Readiness: Companies are accelerating their efforts to implement post-quantum cryptographic standards.
• RISC-V: US export restrictions on RISC-V chips may limit their use in certain markets, especially those under scrutiny for national security.
• Cybersecurity and Gen AI: Cybersecurity professionals are exploring ways to use gen AI both for attacks and for defense, with increased threats and opportunities.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 is a "gap year" for gen AI and TMT, marked by the need to address infrastructure, trust, gender, and operational challenges.
• Emerging trends such as agentic AI, silicon photonics, and B/OSS modernization are set to shape the industry's future.
• The report emphasizes the importance of trust, inclusivity, and sustainability in driving long-term adoption and innovation.