IMF-菲利普斯曲线变陡了吗？（英）-2023.5-23页_1mb

Background

The Phillips Curve, which illustrates the relationship between unemployment and inflation, has flattened in recent decades in advanced economies. However, this paper examines whether structural changes post-pandemic, such as digitalization and de-globalization, have steepened it, potentially explaining recent inflation spikes.

Methodology

The paper uses sectoral Phillips curve estimation with quarterly data from 17 sectors in 24 European advanced economies (2012Q1–2019Q4). Key variables include digitalization (e-commerce penetration) and trade intensity (as a proxy for globalization). Additional analysis uses UK price quote data to investigate how digitalization affects price flexibility.

Findings

Higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are statistically significant factors associated with a steeper Phillips Curve. Results from sectoral data indicate that the Curve steepened in the UK, Spain, Italy, and the Euro area post-pandemic, but changes are small (e.g., 0.01–0.02 percentage points in inflation response). Even in a hypothetical de-globalization scenario with reduced trade intensity, the effect is limited. Digitalization's impact on price flexibility suggests increased price adjustment frequency, supporting the steepening effect.

Conclusion

The post-pandemic Phillips Curve has become marginally steeper due to digitalization and de-globalization concerns, but this cannot fully explain recent severe inflation surges, indicating other structural factors, such as inflation expectations or supply shocks, are primary drivers.