20150121-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_3mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive update on economic and market activities across several Asian regions, including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes economic data, sector outlooks, company updates, and investment recommendations for the period ending on Wednesday, 21 January 2015.

Main Points

China

Economic Data:
- China's GDP growth for 2014 was 7.4% yoy, beating market expectations.
- In 4Q14, GDP growth slowed to 7.3% yoy, consistent with consensus.
- Industrial production (IP) and retail sales both exceeded expectations in December 2014, with IP at 7.9% yoy and retail sales at 11.9% yoy.
- Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth for December 2014 was 14.6% yoy, with government-led infrastructure investments playing a key role.
Monetary Policy:
- The PBOC may delay universal monetary easing due to improved economic data and concerns over capital outflows.
- Targeted monetary policies are expected to be used to support key sectors.
Renewable Energy Sector:
- Outlook remains positive with upcoming catalysts, particularly in wind power for 1Q15.
- Renewable energy quota system is set to be announced, likely to improve utilisation rates.
- State Grid plans significant investment in power transmission lines, especially in Inner Mongolia, to enhance grid access.
- Top picks include Huaneng Renewables (958 HK), Singyes Solar (750 HK), and Longyuan Power (916 HK).
Company Update: China Resources Land (1109 HK):
- Sales growth is expected to be 30% yoy in 2015, higher than the sector average.
- Asset injections in December 2014 have improved margins and performance.
- Maintained BUY recommendation with an upgraded target price of HK$26.08.

Hong Kong

L'Occitane (973 HK):
- Downgraded to HOLD from BUY due to pending court cases at the Aspire Ngamwongwan condo project.
- Target price revised to HK$18.50.

Indonesia

Strategy:
- Recommend buying stocks of ISAT, GIAA, BSDE, and TBIG as they are likely to beat 2014 net income forecasts.

Malaysia

Budget Revision:
- The 2015 Budget revision is a small step, with soft crude oil prices still affecting market sentiment.
- CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT MK):
  - Earnings improved in 4Q14 due to completed AEIs.
  - Maintained BUY recommendation with a target price of RM1.54.

Singapore

Oilfield Services:
- Key takeaways from the regional oil & gas conference.
- Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP):
  - Occupancy pressure remains, but the company is pushing through with conversions and acquisitions.
  - Maintained HOLD recommendation with a target price of S$1.32.

Thailand

Strategy:
- Recommend buying high-yielding stocks with strong pricing power and steady margins, including CPALL, ITD, CENTEL, CPF, GFPT, BECL, BGH, ADVANC, and SPALI.
- Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB):
  - Earnings rose by 19% in 2014 due to healthy income spread and tight cost control.
  - Maintained SELL recommendation with a target price of Bt35.00.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17515.2	0.0	-0.7	-1.6	-1.7
S&P 500	2022.6	0.2	-0.3	-2.3	-1.8
FTSE 100	6620.1	0.5	1.2	1.1	0.8
AS30	5286.8	-0.0	-1.8	-0.5	-1.9
CSI 300	3396.2	1.2	-3.4	0.4	-3.9
FSSTI	3334.0	0.8	-0.2	1.7	-0.9
HSI	23951.2	0.9	-1.1	3.6	1.5
JCI	5166.1	0.3	-0.9	0.4	-1.2
KLCI	1750.1	-0.2	0.1	2.0	-0.6
KOSPI	1918.3	0.8	0.1	-0.6	0.1
Nikkei 225	17366.3	2.1	1.6	-1.4	-0.5
SET	1535.1	-0.0	0.0	1.4	2.5
TWSE	9251.7	0.8	0.2	2.8	-0.6
BDI	753	1.9	-1.2	-6.2	-3.7
CPO (RM/mt)	2332	0.5	-0.6	8.4	1.5
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	46	-4.7	0.7	-17.9	-12.9

Key Assumptions

Indicator	2013	2014	2015F
GDP (% yoy)	7.7	7.2	7.0
FAI (% yoy)	12.2	15.7	16.0
IP (% yoy)	8.3	8.3	8.5
Retail Sales (% yoy)	12.0	12.0	12.5
Trade Surplus (US$b)	382.5	382.5	393.6
CPI (%)	2.0	2.0	1.7
PPI (%)	-1.9	-1.9	-0.8
M2 (% yoy)	12.2	12.2	13.0
New Loans (Rmbt)	9.8	9.8	10.5

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Pot. +/-
Sunac China	1918 HK	6.65	9.29	39.7
ICBC	1398 HK	5.58	6.90	23.7
Bank Mandiri	BMRI J	10,750.00	12,500.00	16.3
GAM MK	GAM MK	5.05	5.50	8.9
DBS SP	DBS SP	19.92	22.68	13.9
PACRA SP	PACRA SP	0.70	1.00	42.9
BBL TB	BBL TB	185.00	276.00	49.2
ADVANC	ADVANC	249.00	270.00	8.4

Sector Catalysts

Renewable Energy Quota System: Expected to be announced in early 2015, encouraging renewable energy power generation in 1Q15.
Wind Power: Expected to outperform in 1Q15 due to improved grid access and tariff cuts.
Distributed Solar Power Generation (DG): Supported by clearer credit policies from major banks.

Analysts

Chaoping Zhu: +8621 5404 7225 ext 822, chaoping@uobkayhian.com
Kevin Zhao Yong Tao: +8621 5404 7225 x 805, kevinzhao@uobkayhian.com
James Yuan Bei Lun: +862154047225×820, jamesyuan@uobkayhian.com
Edison Bian: +852 2236 6761, edison.bian@uobkayhian.com.hk
David Yang: +8621 5404 7225 ext 801, davidyang@uobkayhian.com

Summary of Investment Recommendations

China Resources Land (1109 HK): Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$26.08.
Renewable Energy Sector: Maintained OVERWEIGHT, with top picks including Huaneng Renewables, Singyes Solar, and Longyuan Power.
Malaysia: CMMT MK recommended BUY with a target price of RM1.54.
Singapore: MLT SP recommended HOLD with a target price of S$1.32.
Thailand: CPF recommended BUY with a target price of Bt35.00; AP recommended HOLD due to court case risks.
Indonesia: Recommend buying ISAT, GIAA, BSDE, and TBIG.
Malaysia: Budget revision is a small comfort but not strong enough to offset oil price concerns.
Thailand: Focus on high-yielding stocks with strong pricing power and low D/E ratios.

Market Outlook

The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to weak liquidity and the ongoing impact of falling oil prices.
Economic growth is expected to moderate in 2015, with a focus on reforms and restructuring rather than aggressive stimulus.
The renewable energy sector is seen as a key growth driver with positive catalysts and improving fundamentals.

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