20180521-兴业研究-Robust_Exports_Lift_China_s_April_IVA_9页_903kb

报告摘要

Robust Exports Lift China's April IVA Summary

Core Content

China's industrial value added (IVA) growth accelerated to 7.0% year-on-year (y/y) in April 2018, surpassing market expectations. This growth was primarily driven by stronger-than-anticipated export performance, which offset the slowdown in both investment and consumption sectors. The year-to-date (YTD) export growth reached 13.7% y/y in the first four months of 2018, significantly higher than the 2017 average. The IVA growth rate typically leads the export growth rate by one month, indicating that export activity is likely to continue to support industrial output in the coming months.

Main Points

1. Industrial Value Added Growth

IVA growth in April 2018 reached 7.0% y/y, exceeding the market estimate of 6.4% and the previous month's 6.0%.
The manufacturing IVA rebounded by 0.8 percentage points from March, suggesting a recovery in production.
Export orders (as reflected in the PMI index) played a key role in supporting the IVA growth, especially in sectors reliant on exports such as special-purpose equipment, general-purpose equipment, and medicine.

2. Fixed Asset Investment

Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 7.0% y/y in April, down from 7.5% in March.
The slowdown was partially offset by accelerating manufacturing investment, which saw a rebound due to increased export activity.
Infrastructure investment also slowed, mainly due to tighter regulations on local government fundraising and stricter approval rules for PPP projects.

3. Consumption Growth

Consumption growth (measured by retail sales of consumer goods) slowed to 9.4% y/y in April, down from 10.1% in March.
The slowdown was attributed to:
- Seasonal effects (typically weaker in April compared to March).
- Weaker disposable income growth, which limited consumer spending.

Key Information

Export growth remains a critical factor in supporting China's industrial output.
Manufacturing investment rebounded in April, indicating resilience in the industrial sector.
Fixed asset investment faced a slowdown, but the manufacturing sub-sector provided a buffer.
Infrastructure investment is constrained by regulatory tightening, while property investment remains underpinned despite a slowdown in sales.
Consumption is vulnerable to seasonal fluctuations and income trends, with April showing signs of weakness.

Outlook

Infrastructure investment may continue to be constrained by debt reduction efforts, but the government may use its abundant funds to support it.
Property investment is unlikely to rise significantly due to strict real estate regulations.
Manufacturing investment is expected to continue its upward trend as capacity utilization improves.
Consumption may remain weak unless disposable income growth improves.

Figures and Data Highlights

Figure 1 shows that IVA growth leads export growth by one month.
Figure 2 highlights the correlation between PMI new export orders and manufacturing IVA.
Figure 3 compares the growth rates of fixed asset investment and its sub-indices.
Figure 5 and Figure 6 illustrate the property investment and sales trends, with a notable drop in investment after excluding land purchase fees.
Figure 8 and Figure 10 demonstrate the seasonal and income-related factors affecting consumption growth.

Legal Disclosures

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