20140410-美银美林-March_China_trade_data__Robust_steel_exports_copper_imports_remain_high_20页_1mb

March 2014 China Trade Data Summary

Core Content Overview

The document presents an analysis of China's March 2014 trade data, focusing on key commodities such as petrochemicals, iron ore, steel, copper, rare earths, and energy products. It highlights both the growth and decline in various categories, providing insights into the market dynamics and investment implications for related firms.

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Main Points and Key Information

1. Petrochemicals & Rubbers

• Primary plastic imports were nearly flat YoY, with a slight increase in March 2014 compared to the previous year.
• Natural & synthetic rubber imports increased by 7.4% YoY in March 2014.
• These data are generally neutral for petrochemical-related companies.

2. Energy and Oil Products

• Crude oil imports were slightly up YoY, with a 2.0% increase in March 2014.
• Coal imports increased sharply, while coal exports declined by 5.1% YoY.
• LNG/LPG imports rose significantly by 29.4% YoY.
• Oil products net imports showed a negative trend in March 2014, with a -24.3% YoY change in some months.
• Crude oil prices and natural gas prices are referenced, indicating market conditions affecting imports.

3. Iron Ore & Steel

• Iron ore imports rose sharply by 14.6% YoY in March 2014, suggesting strong demand.
• Steel exports increased by 30% YoY to 6.76mn tons, showing robust export performance.
• Coke exports continued to grow, which depresses market conditions and is negative for coke exporters like Mitsubishi Chemical.
• The steel trade balance showed a positive net export of 5.51mn tons in March 2014.
• Steel production and inventory levels are noted, with crude steel production expected to rise due to increased iron ore demand.

4. Copper & Rare Earths

• Copper ore imports increased by 20.8% YoY, and all copper products imports rose by 31.4% YoY.
• This reflects China's strong demand for copper, which is positive for firms like Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713), Mitsubishi Materials (5711), and Mitsui Mining and Smelting (5706).
• Rare earth exports surged by 55.3% YoY, indicating continued export activity.

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Investment Implications

• Steel exports are positive for non-ferrous metal companies, but negative for commodity-related steel producers due to market pressures.
• Coke exports are negative for coking coal exporters, including Mitsubishi Chemical.
• Petrochemicals and rubbers show neutral trends, with minimal changes in import volumes.
• Copper and rare earths are positive for related exporters and companies involved in processing.

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Key Statistics (March 2014)

Product	2013 (mn tons)	2014 (mn tons)	YoY Change
Primary plastic - import	2.05	2.06	0.5%
Natural & Synthetic rubber - import	0.38	0.41	7.4%
Steel exports	4.80	6.76	30%
Iron ore imports	61.24	73.96	14.6%
Coke exports	0.55	0.65	-
Steel products net export	3.82	5.51	36.0%
Copper ore imports	0.76	0.94	20.8%
All copper products imports	0.38	0.42	31.4%
Rare earth exports	1.65	2.67	55.3%

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Disclosure Notes

• The report is issued by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
• It includes equity opinions with investment ratings (Buy, Neutral, Underperform) and volatility risk ratings (A, B, C).
• There are important disclosures regarding conflicts of interest, financial interests, and regulatory compliance.
• The report is distributed to different jurisdictions with varying authorizations and regulations.
• Investors should consider this report as one factor in their investment decisions and consult their BofA Merrill Lynch representative for further details.