2024-01-30-莱坊-European_Office_Dashboard_-_Berlin_Q4_2023_2页_550kb

报告摘要

Office Market Summary - Q4 2023

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the office market in Berlin and Germany as of Q4 2023, highlighting key metrics, trends, and outlook for the coming year. It includes data on office take-up, vacancy rates, prime rent, construction activity, and economic indicators.

Key Figures

Office Take-up: 111,500 sqm in Q4 2023, a 32% decrease compared to Q4 2022.
Full-Year Take-up: Down 29% from 2022 and 37% from 2021.
Vacancy Rate: Increased to 4.4% at the end of 2023 from 3.3% at the end of 2022.
Prime Rent: Rose to €540 per sqm per year, up 3.4% year-on-year.
New Office Supply: 540,000 sqm completed in 2023, down 14% from 2022.
Construction Pipeline: 1.3 million sqm under construction, with 740,000 sqm expected to be completed by the end of 2024.
Pre-Letting Rate: 57% for the upcoming supply.
2024 Outlook: Potential office take-up of around 600,000 sqm in Berlin if economic conditions improve.

Main Trends and Views

Office Take-up Decline

Office take-up in Berlin has declined significantly over the past five years.
The drop in demand is attributed to economic uncertainty and a shift in corporate work concepts, leading to reduced office space requirements.
This trend has resulted in an increase in vacancies and sub-lease space.

Vacancy Rate Increase

The vacancy rate has risen by 38% of available office space, reflecting weaker demand.
The increase is driven by both economic factors and changes in how companies use office space.

Prime Rent Growth

Prime rent in Berlin reached €540 per sqm per year, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase.
The demand for high-quality and ESG-compliant office spaces is expected to sustain high rent levels.

Construction Activity

Office construction activity slowed in 2023 due to uncertain market conditions.
Several projects were halted or postponed, contributing to the lower supply.
A significant amount of space (740,000 sqm) is expected to be added to the market by the end of 2024.

Economic Outlook

The pace of new business starts in Germany remained strong in Q4 2023, above the five-year average.
Despite this, the German service sector PMI remained in contractionary territory, indicating a weak labour market.
Employment expectations in the service sector slightly improved in December 2023 but remain below 2022 levels.
The unemployment rate in Germany rose to 5.9% in Q4 2023, still below the long-term average of 8.2%.

Key Information

Berlin's Attractiveness: The city continues to attract companies due to its large talent pool.
Market Uncertainty: Political and geopolitical tensions have affected demand and led to cost-cutting measures by service providers.
Future Prospects: With improved economic outlook, Berlin could see a significant increase in office take-up in 2024.