20231205-大越期货-PTA_MEG早报_21页_942kb

报告摘要

Fundamentals: Recent oil prices are weak, impacting cost support. A new 250万吨/年 PTA line is partially operational, with existing lines running normally. PX market shows reduced load and high inventory, leading to surplus supply and compressed PX costs. PTA production may decrease due to plan changes and underperforming restarts.
Supply and Demand Balance: Supply reduction is expected in December, with inventory days环比减少 by 012 to 502. Polyester demand is robust short-term from seasonal textile recovery, but risk of negative feedback.
Price and Technicals: Spot price 5675, with 01合约基差 31, indicating slight contango. Trend line bearish, price below 20-day average. With net short positions and increasing short interest, short-term outlook is weak with low volatility risk.
Outlook: Overall neutral to bearish; cost support weakening but short-term demand provides some stability. Anticipated continuation of weak震荡 due to balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Fundamentals: New capacity additions are ongoing, but capacity removal is slow. Circular inventory is 1236万吨, slightly reduced but remains high. Cost support from oil is declining, with spot price basis negative.
Supply and Demand Balance: High inventory levels persist due to increased production. Polyester demand offers some support from sustained high load.
Price and Technicals: Spot price 4040 with 01合约基差 -24, showing backwardation. Downward trend line, above 20-day average. Capital positions similar to PTA, indicating bearish sentiment from the market.
Outlook: Weak due to oil price decline and inventory pressures, but potential for accumulation in December if no new supply surges. Short-term tight balance with risks.

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