20251211-国泰期货-欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第218期）_1页_1mb

Emissions Update 9 Market Brief (20th Year Q2 Issue 2518), dated 2025-12-11, published by Guotai Junan Futures, provides an analysis of the TTF and EUA markets.

EUA auction results show a primary auction price of 82.18 EUR/ton (-0.05%) and secondary settlement price of 82.42 EUR/ton (-0.52%). Signal strength is 2, indicating a net short position.

Key bullish factors include a 356,000 tons increase in fund net long positions from the latest CoT report. Bearish factors are weak fundamentals and a pullback in TTF from previous gains.

Risks involve potential European economic recession, EU increasing auctions for funding, and relaxation of emission caps.