20250916-国泰期货-欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第164期）_1页_1mb

EUA Market Analysis Summary

Market Overview

EUA prices are exhibiting high-level consolidation, supported by both strong real market fundamentals and positive policy expectations, resulting in a ranging trade with no significant daily movement.

Key Price Levels

• Spot Price: 75.02 EUR/ton (0.00% change from previous trading)
• Futures Settlement Price: 76.75 EUR/ton (1.29% change from previous trading)
• Trading Volume: 29,000 contracts

Trading Strategy

The recommended strategy is high-sell and low-buy, targeting key support and resistance levels, including the spot price at 73.83 EUR/ton and futures at 76.75 EUR/ton.

Policy and Market Factors

Bullish Factors

• EU considering limiting CBAM participation to ETS members using verified emission data, which could strengthen compliance and demand for EUA.

Bearish Factors

• Fulfillment deadline approaching, potentially leading to early emission reductions and supply constraints, which could depress prices.

Key Risks

• European economic recession
• EU increasing auction volumes to fund ETS-related preparations
• Weakness in emission cap settings, reducing supply-side support for prices

This summary captures the core elements of the market conditions, strategies, and risks associated with EUA as of September 16, 2025.