20251208-国投证券_香港_-港股通名单观察_25H2港股通名单检讨预检_4页_770kb

报告摘要

Hong Kong Connect Eligibility Analysis Summary

Introduction: The analysis focuses on the potential changes to the Hong Kong Connect (HKConnect) eligibility list due to the upcoming 2025H2 review of the Hang Seng Index series (including Hang Seng Composite Index) by the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) and its indexing arm, Hang Seng Index Limited (HSIL). The changes will take effect on March 9, 2026.
Key Metric Change: The review predicts a significant increase in the index inclusion thresholds. For the Hang Seng Composite Index, the daily average market capitalization threshold for inclusion is expected to rise from HKD 73.3 billion (at the time of the previous review in mid-2025) to approximately HKD 93.2 billion, representing a 27.1% increase. The corresponding de-listing threshold is expected to rise from HKD 46.3 billion to approximately HKD 61.5 billion, a 37.1% increase.
Potential New HKConnect Stocks (27 Non-A/H + 1 New A/H):
- Likely to be Added: HSIL predicts that 27 non-A/H stocks are likely to meet the new higher market cap criteria and join the Hang Seng Composite Index, thereby becoming eligible for HKConnect. Additionally, Wing Chi New Material (2579.HK), an A+H stock recently listed in Hong Kong (November 17, 2025), is expected to join HKConnect after its price stabilization period ends (December 15, 2025).
- JDT Group (7618.HK): Listed on December 11, 2025, with an estimated market capitalization between HKD 34.1 billion and HKD 41.7 billion (just below 93.2 billion but potentially meeting criteria if market cap calculation is different), it is also predicted to meet the criteria and join HKConnect.
- Watchlist/Conditional: Stocks like JDY Technology (2507.HK), Zojirhua Technology (3858.HK), and others have market caps close to the threshold. Their inclusion depends on their closing prices relative to the index by the effective date (February 20, 2026). Stocks like Gleacon Ltd. (2477.HK), Diffco Group (6090.HK - newly listed in Sept 2025), and Kikuma Seiki (1651.HK) may experience significant price volatility upon inclusion attempts ("pursuit of HKConnect"). At least two stocks (Gleacon, Diffco Group) will be added to HKConnect in the next trading week.
Stocks Expected to Lose HKConnect Eligibility (26 Current List):
- Likely to be Removed: HSIL predicts 26 existing HKConnect stocks (currently meeting the de-listing threshold of HKD 61.5 billion) will lose their eligibility following the review due to insufficient market capitalization during the review period.
- Conditional Survival: Two stocks, Zhujiang Property Management Holdings (9979.HK) and Wulong.com (777.HK), have daily average market caps just below the de-listing threshold (approx. HKD 59.9B and HKD 59.3B). Their survival is possible only if their share prices significantly outperform the market in the remaining trading days (December remaining).
Summary of Target Stocks:
- Materials: Lintech International (3858.HK), Lingbao Gold Mining (3330.HK)
- Industry: Westech Holdings (3393.HK)
- Consumer Staples: Keekoo (2698.HK)
- Healthcare: Kangsheng Pharmaceutical (1681.HK), Kingpharmaceutical (2595.HK), Changfeng Pharmaceutical (2652.HK)
- Financials: Yaocai Securities (1428.HK)
- Information Technology: Tikpu Technology (1384.HK)