20240830-建信期货-铁合金日评_8页_2mb

报告摘要

硅铁、锰硅期货及现货市场总结

一、市场回顾

期货价格：8月29日，硅铁主力合约SF410收报6420元/吨，涨幅0.44%；锰硅主力合约SM501收报6420元/吨，涨幅0.56%。两合约高开后震荡下行，随后反弹，午盘维持震荡。
现货价格：硅铁72%与75%自然块主产区报价分别在6150-6200元/吨和6680-6750元/吨，环比持平或小幅下滑；锰硅现货价格在5980-6050元/吨区间，部分产区报价下调50元/吨。

二、需求与供应分析

硅铁：

需求：钢材价格企稳回升，钢厂复产预期增强，硅铁需求逐步恢复。
供应：产量小幅回落，但主产区盈利水平尚可，限电政策对供应影响有限，库存有所下降，支撑价格。
锰硅：
需求：钢材复产力度更大，尤其是螺纹钢基本面改善，锰硅需求预期更强。
供应：产量连续下滑，但锰矿价格下跌缓解亏损压力，库存积压问题显著，价格承压。

三、后市展望

硅铁：短期偏强运行，但成本支撑减弱，上方空间有限，建议关注成本线变动。
锰硅：短期或跟随反弹，但基本面弱势难改，长期或回归下行趋势。

四、关键数据

铁水产量：247家钢厂日均产量降至低位，钢厂检修大面积结束，但高盈利率支撑开工率。
库存：硅铁库存回落对价格形成支撑；锰硅库存堆积严重，压力明显。
成本端：内蒙古电价下调，兰炭、二氧化硅价格下滑，硅铁成本优势扩大，锰硅原料价格下行压力较大。

原油系价格动态

外盘原油价格趋稳，布伦特原油现货依旧低迷，美原油呈现宽幅震荡，但海外抛储支撑空头，国内需求逐步恢复带来复苏预期博弈及政策扰动，维持中性偏空观点。

Silicon Iron & Manganese Silicate Market Brief

I. Market Review

Futures Prices: On August 29, SF410 closed at ¥6,420/ton with a 0.44% increase; SM501 closed at ¥6,420/ton, up 0.56%. The two contracts fluctuated after high open, with SF410 maintaining support.
Spot Prices: 72% FeSi and 75% FeSi spot prices were relatively stable, with slight decreases in Inner Mongolia. MnSi prices saw minor adjustments, with some regions down ¥50/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis

Silicon Iron:

Demand: Steel price stabilization revives demand, but expectations limited.
Supply: Output declined moderately, supported by profitability. Lower inventory provides support.
Manganese Silicate:
Demand: Stronger outlook due to steel sector recovery, especially in rebar demand post-standard transitions.
Supply: Output decreased over five weeks, but declining Mn ore prices alleviate losses and limit further declines; inventory pressures remain.

III. Outlook

Silicon Iron: Short-term technical support may cap upside; long-term depends on cost competitiveness.
Manganese Silicate: Short-term rebound expected but fundamentals remain weak; demand and output uncertainties dominate.

IV. Key Data

Iron Water: Output at record low, but recovery expected as repair activities end; steel profitability declined.
Inventory: Silicon iron's lower levels support prices; manganese silicate's excess inventory remains a pressure point.
Cost Side: Lower electricity/costs support silicon iron; manganese ore costs decline, pressuring Mn silicate hedging.

展开完整摘要