2023-05-05-世界银行-增长和韧性_太平洋岛屿系统国家诊断更新_2023年1月（英）_142页_9mb

Summary of Growth and Resilience: Pacific Islands Systematic Country Diagnostic Update

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) Update for the Nine Small Pacific Island Countries (PIC-9) is a comprehensive assessment of the region's development challenges, opportunities, and pathways for growth and resilience, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing climate change risks. It updates the 2016 SCD and outlines three key development pathways: increasing economic opportunities, maximizing human capital and its economic returns, and building resilient incomes and livelihoods. The report also highlights the importance of governance and the business environment as fundamental enablers for sustainable development.

Main Challenges

• Small size and remoteness: The PIC-9 countries are small, scattered across the Pacific Ocean, and internally dispersed, which limits economies of scale and increases costs of transport, logistics, and imports.
• Limited economic diversity: The economies are heavily reliant on tourism, fishing, and agriculture, making them vulnerable to external shocks and disasters.
• High vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change: Increased exposure to climate change impacts threatens land, marine, and water resources, as well as livelihoods. Rising sea levels and storm surges are expected to worsen coastal flooding, shoreline retreat, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies.
• High public spending and trade deficits: Most PIC-9 countries have high public spending, large trade deficits relative to their economic size, and depend heavily on external flows (e.g., foreign aid and remittances) to finance these deficits.
• Limited fiscal capacity and debt distress risks: Low debt-carrying capacity increases the risk of debt distress.
• High poverty and inequality: Poverty is more prevalent in some PIC-9 countries, especially the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), while education and health outcomes lag behind regional and global averages.

Key Findings

• Tourism recovery: Post-pandemic, the focus is on rebuilding tourism with a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient approach. Digital transformation is crucial for marketing, product development, and service delivery.
• Fishing sector: Countries that rely on ocean fisheries experienced less economic disruption during the pandemic. The tuna-fishing permit system is a model for regional cooperation and could be enhanced to increase value through extended fishing rights and transferable permits.
• Remittances and labor mobility: Remittances are a critical income source for many households. International labor mobility is essential for economic growth and poverty reduction. Australia and New Zealand now focus on skilled migration, but broader openness could benefit both sending and receiving countries.
• Digital connectivity: The digital divide is a major constraint. Fixed broadband networks and local broadband services are vital for reducing transaction costs, supporting innovation, and expanding access to services and markets. Digital transformation is needed in both the public and private sectors.
• Human capital development: Improving health and education is essential for increasing productivity and labor mobility. Human Capital Index (HCI) scores in the PIC-9 are low, and maternal mortality, health coverage, and literacy and numeracy levels remain concerns.
• Social protection and resilience: Social assistance and resilience mechanisms are needed to protect vulnerable populations from economic and health shocks. Digital and sustainable trade facilitation and risk and resilience assessments (RRA) are important tools in this regard.
• Climate change and disaster risk: Disaster risk finance (DRF) and climate change adaptation (CCA) are critical for ensuring long-term resilience. Disaster frequency has increased, and economic volatility remains high due to external shocks and climate-related events.

Development Priorities

• Pathway 1: Increasing economic opportunities

  • Focus on tourism recovery and fishing sector expansion.
  • Promote digital transformation to reduce costs and expand access.
  • Enhance international labor mobility and remittance flows.

• Pathway 2: Maximizing human capital and its economic returns

  • Improve health and education access and quality.
  • Enhance early childhood education (ECE) and literacy and numeracy.
  • Support digital public services in education and health.

• Pathway 3: Building resilient incomes and livelihoods

  • Strengthen social protection systems and resilience mechanisms.
  • Develop digital and sustainable trade facilitation.
  • Implement risk and resilience assessments to manage disaster and climate impacts.

Key Enablers

• Governance and business environment: Improvements in governance indicators and public financial management (PFM) are necessary to support economic growth and resilience.
• Infrastructure development: Investment in digital connectivity and physical infrastructure (e.g., transport, logistics) is crucial for overcoming the tyranny of distance.
• Regional cooperation: The 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent emphasizes collective action on social, cultural, environmental, and economic integrity. The SCD Update aligns with this strategy.

Conclusion

The PIC-9 SCD Update highlights the interconnected nature of development challenges and the need for integrated solutions. While each country has unique characteristics, common issues such as limited economic diversity, high vulnerability to disasters and climate change, and inefficient public service delivery require region-wide strategies. The report underscores the importance of connectivity, resilience, and governance in achieving sustainable growth and poverty reduction in the Pacific Islands.