2024-03-13-世界银行-津巴布韦国家气候与发展报告（英）_88页_2mb

Zimbabwe Country Climate and Development Report Summary

Executive Summary

• Zimbabwe is a lower-middle-income nation with abundant natural resources but faces severe climate vulnerabilities and economic challenges. The country is highly exposed to climate change, hindered by limited public finance and weak private investment due to macroeconomic instability.
• Over-dependence on agriculture, exacerbated by land reforms, has increased climate vulnerability. Deindustrialization coupled with land expansion pushed GHG emissions from land use (AFOLU) to high levels.
• "No-regrets" low-cost actions can build resilience and transition the economy toward an upper-middle income (UMIC) pathway via Zimbabwe's Nany Determined Contribution (NDC) and Vision 2030.
• Two growth scenarios were assessed: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario (low growth, continued economic constraints) and an Aspirational (ASP) scenario (robust growth, full implementation of Vision 2030).
• Climate impacts degrade with the ASP path due to shifting toward less agriculture-intensive sectors. The mining industry, rich in critical minerals for green tech (ETMs), can catalyse low-carbon development and attract investment.
• Urgent action is needed on mining governance, resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, social protection, and finance to meet climate goals and development ambitions.

Key Findings

1. Economic & Climate Vulnerabilities:

   • Extreme poverty doubled over the last decade, heavily concentrated in rural areas.
   • Poverty reduction highly dependent on securing the ASP path (GDP growth, re-engagement with MDBs). Climate change risks are more severe if progress stalls on this path.
   • Main vulnerabilities: Extreme poverty, limited public revenue, inadequate foreign exchange, insecure land tenure, weak implementation of policies, high deindustrialization.

2. Sectoral Priorities & Climate Actions:

   • Mining: A major (14% GDP) and potential driver of green transition. Needs governance reforms (transparent licences, predictable royalties, state ownership reduction) to unlock investment, enabling RE access and resilient transport infrastructure. Link PPPs with mining concessions to fund rails and greening.
   • Agriculture: Land reforms hindered productivity. Key actions include scaling conservation agriculture, promoting irrigation (leveraging carbon markets, parallel water rights), enhancing resilience, restoring degraded land.
   • Social Protection: HSCT minimal (0.4% coverage). Reform (digital payments, targeting, climate triggers) and horizontal/expansion components are critical for building resilience. Nutrition, health, STEM education, and clean cooking support are needed.

3. Critical Actions/ Challenges:

   • Financing: Huge climate finance needs ($9.2 billion BAU, $8.5 billion ASP up to 2030). Constraints: Limited public budget, high public debt, low pool of climate finance (ODE overall ~$121m via 2014-2018). Opportunities exist in MDBs, green bonds, VCM.
   • Governance: Lack of predictability (royalties, parallel exchange rates, retention requirements), politicking in land/permitting, weak oversight.
   • Risk Management: Limited ARIs, fragile infrastructure (roads, power, rail, water), inadequate disaster risk financing, underdeveloped insurance markets for public assets/floods.
   • Climate Impacts: Labor heat stress, crop losses (esp. maize, livestock), water scarcity, higher poverty rates under dry/hot scenarios.

Strategic Recommendations (Priority Areas)

Challenges & Opportunities Assessment

• Challenges: Increasing climate variability and extreme events impacting key sectors (AG, Mining, WSS). Limited fiscal space and real resources. Weak institutions and governance issues. Land degradation and biodiversity loss undermining ecosystem services and productivity. High informality restricting revenue mobilization. Volatility remains a major constraint for both BAU and ASP scenarios.
• Opportunities: Mining revenue from critical ETMs aligns well with global green transition trends. High potential for unlocking green finance (VC, sovereign finance, MDBs). Evidence of positive private returns from climate action. Synergies between NDC, NDS1, and Vision 2030. Lessons from governance reforms in other mines.

Conclusions & Outlook

• Achieving ambitious development goals requires setting immediate, catalytic, low-cost actions in key sectors to build resilience, proving ideas to unlock the growth pathway. The "no-regrets" actions under BAU pave the way for ASP to deliver climate and development gains.
• Transformation requires sustainable finance, private sector partnerships, and strong GoZ leadership.
• Urgent implementation is needed across all sectors to build resilience against severe climate impacts and capitalize on the opportunity of the energy transition.