高盛-中国电子商务发展报告（英文）-2018.8-63页_5mb

Summary of E+Commerce / Logistics of Things (LoT) in China

Core Content

This report explores the evolving landscape of e-commerce and logistics in China, focusing on the continued growth of the online retail market, the competition between Alibaba and Tencent's ecosystem, and the implications for the logistics sector. It highlights the shift toward new shopping experiences, faster delivery times, and the expansion of new categories such as home furnishing, autos, and online services. The report also delves into the strategic moves of major players and the role of technology in reshaping retail and delivery operations.

Main Points

Market Growth

• Overall retail sales in China are projected to grow at a 10% CAGR from 2017 to 2020E.
• Online retail is expected to grow at 25% CAGR, with online GMV reaching Rmb14 trillion by 2020E.
• Parcel volume is forecast to grow at 26% CAGR, with total parcels delivered in China expected to exceed 92 billion by 2020E.

Key Trends

• New shopping experiences are driving growth, particularly in fresh food delivery and instant delivery.
• New Retail and Smart Retail are reshaping the retail sector, with Alibaba and Tencent leading the way.
• Social e-commerce is gaining traction, especially through WeChat mini-programs, which offer a lightweight platform for commerce without the need for app downloads.
• Team purchase models are also contributing to growth, particularly in lower-tier cities.

Competitive Landscape

• Alibaba and Tencent's ecosystem are intensifying competition in various sectors:
  • Electronics & Appliances: JD vs. Suning
  • Apparel: Vipshop & JD vs. Tmall
  • FMCG & Groceries: Alibaba and JD's expansion into these categories
• Alibaba is focusing on New Retail, with Hema and Tmall Supermarket as key initiatives.
• Tencent is promoting Smart Retail, using mini-programs and social commerce to enhance user engagement and expand into offline retail.

Logistics Implications

• Express delivery is expected to see 28% growth in 2018, driven by lower ticket sizes and higher delivery frequency.
• Last-mile delivery is a key battleground, with speed, predictability, and cost being the main drivers.
• Warehousing is becoming more integrated and automated, with major players like JD Logistics and Cainiao expanding their warehouse networks.
• Trucking is seeing increased demand due to bulk shipments, especially in LTL (Less Than Truckload).

Category Growth Drivers

• FMCG & Groceries remain the largest category, with 31% of China retail spending in 2017.
• Online services are growing, including ride-hailing, bike sharing, and online travel bookings.
• Home furnishing and autos are emerging categories with significant growth potential.

Key Players and Strategies

Alibaba Group

• New Retail strategy focuses on online-offline integration, with Hema, Tmall Supermarket, and Ele.Me as key components.
• Investments in Cainiao Network, Suning, and Sanjing are aimed at strengthening logistics and retail presence.
• Taobao Family Account and Taobao Special Offer are targeted at older users and lower-tier cities respectively.

Tencent Group

• Smart Retail Strategy includes mini-programs, cloud services, and B2B supply chain solutions.
• JD.com and Meituan are leveraging mini-programs to expand their reach and user base.
• WeChat mini-programs are becoming a key channel for social e-commerce, with JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop leading in user engagement and traffic.

JD.com

• JD Logistics and Cainiao are expanding warehouse networks and last-mile delivery capabilities.
• JD.com is investing in borderless retail and smart logistics to enhance customer experience.

Vipshop

• Focus on top-line growth through market share expansion.
• Team purchase is a key model, with Pinduoduo leading in this space.
• Mini-programs are being used to increase user traffic and sales.

Key Statistics and Forecasts

• 2017-2020E CAGR for online GMV is 25%, with 2017-2020E CAGR for parcel volume at 26%.
• Alibaba is expected to have Rmb4.1 trillion GMV by 2020E, while JD.com is projected to reach Rmb2.5 trillion.
• Vipshop is expected to have Rmb146 billion GMV by 2020E.
• Pinduoduo is growing rapidly, with 336% YoY growth in active buyers as of 1Q18.
• WeChat mini-program users are expected to reach 400 million by 1Q18, with Pinduoduo leading in DAU and traffic.

Conclusion

The e-commerce and logistics of things (LoT) sector in China is undergoing significant transformation, driven by new shopping experiences, faster delivery, and category expansion. The competition between Alibaba and Tencent's ecosystem is intensifying, with both groups investing heavily in logistics, warehousing, and social commerce. The logistics sector is adapting to these changes with increased automation, warehouse expansion, and cost optimization strategies. Pinduoduo and JD.com are emerging as key players in social e-commerce, while mini-programs are becoming an important tool for user acquisition and traffic diversion. The future of retail in China is expected to be more integrated, efficient, and customer-centric.