2025-05-24-Jefferies-来自路演的反馈_9页_196kb

Jefferies Housebuilders & Construction Equity Research Summary

Feedback From Road

• Recent global turmoil influenced investor meetings across Middle East, Australia, and Asia, highlighting allocation intentions and theme appetites.
• Primarily focused on Heidelberg Materials, Saint-Gobain, and UK housebuilders.
• Investors emphasized valuation, preferring high-quality stocks; common holdings include CRH, with increased interest in European stocks.

UK Housebuilders

• Buy: Barratt Redrow, Redrow, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Crest Nicholson, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey.
• Hold: Vistry Group, Watkin Jones.
• Key considerations: Strong focus on quality, valuation concerns, and limited stock interest due to high valuations.

Irish Housebuildings

• Glenveagh: Buy recommendation.

Pan-European Building Distributors & Products/Materials

• Hold: Howden Joinery, SIG.
• Buy: CRH, Forterra, Geberit, Genuit, Heidelberg Materials, Ibstock, Kingspan, Saint-Gobain, Sika, Volution.
• Increased interest in European recovery, including potential Ukraine rebuild and volume inflection points.

Concession/Contractors

• Hold: ACS, Hochtief, Skanska.
• Buy: AD Ports, Balfour Beatty, Eiffage, Ferrovial, Travis Perkins.
• Asset allocation shifting toward infrastructure and emerging opportunities in global markets.

Valuation and Risks

• Ratings: Based on expected total return (price appreciation plus yield); Buy for >15% return, Hold for +/-15% to -10%, Underperform for <= -10%.
• Risks: Global economic uncertainty, US growth outlook, M&A potential for surprises; European recovery and currency fluctuations.
• Key Notes: 2Q25 results are pivotal for trading robustness; increased European stock interest due to post-downturn recovery signs.

Key Takeaways

• European building stocks, particularly post-global turmoil, show resilience with Buys in quality firms.
• UK housebuilders remain constrained, with valuation sensitivity driving investment choices.
• Overall positive sentiment for recovery in Europe, but vulnerability to economic shocks.