20180328-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_9页_259kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | DAILY - Summary

Core Content

This document is a daily Emerging Markets (EM) strategy report from BNP Paribas, dated 28 March 2018. It provides market outlooks, rate forecasts, FX positions, and investment recommendations for EM, CEEMEA, and Asia markets, with a focus on short-term tactical strategies and risk considerations.

Main Points

Global Equity Markets

A bearish tone has returned to global equity markets due to growing concerns about further US protectionist measures targeting technology.
Technology-intensive indices such as the HANG SENG, TAIEX, and KOSPI have been particularly affected.

US Influence on EM Rates

US variables, including financial indicators and real economy-linked factors, have been the main drivers of EM local rates in recent weeks.
US 1y1y forward rates, economic surprises, and corporate credit risk have played a significant role in influencing EM rates.
The dynamics of US corporate credit risk and the slope of the US swap curve (2s5s) are now key factors for EM/Latam rate strategies.

South Africa

The Reserve Bank of South Africa (SARB) is expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%.
The SARB is likely to revise down its medium- to longer-term inflation forecasts due to stronger currency assumptions.
The SARB is expected to look past the recent 1pp increase in VAT rate, which is projected to add 0.6pp to headline CPI inflation from April.

Thailand

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept policy rates unchanged.
There was one dissenting vote among 22 unanimous decisions to keep rates unchanged, with a call for a rate hike.
Despite inflation at 0.42%, below the BoT's target range, the decision was unexpected.
Front-end THB rates rose by 3 bps, and USDTHB erased gains from its initial move.

Latin America

The Brazilian real (BRL) has entered an oversold position.
The BNPP BEER model suggests that USDBRL is ~4.5% above its short-term fair value.
A short-term, tactical short USDBRL position via 3m NDF is recommended.
A structural long BRL position against CLP, EUR, and AUD is currently held.

Key Investment Recommendations

Open a short-term, tactical short USDBRL position via 3m NDF, targeting 3.25.
Maintain a structural long BRL position relative to CLP, EUR, and AUD.

Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8746
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3418
Piotr Chwieczak	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8715
Sai Ulluri Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 1872
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 3262
Dawn Kwa	FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 3263
Altaz Daga Kun Shan Tianhe Ji	Graduate AU/NZ IR Strategist	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 4994
Gabriel Gersztein	Head FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3421
Samuel Castro	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3492
Gustavo Mendonca	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3445

Production and Editorial

Production: Barbara Consuelo, London, BNP Paribas London branch, +44 20 7595 8486
Editorial: Amanda Grantham-Hill, Anna McLaughlin, Varghese Joseph (London), and Varghese Joseph (New York), BNP Paribas Securities Corp (New York), +1 212 841 3698

Legal Notice

The document is a marketing communication and not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.
It may contain Research as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules.
Conflicts of interest may exist due to BNPP's involvement in trading and investment banking activities.
The document is non-independent research and is not intended for retail investors.
Indicative prices are based on internal models and may not reflect actual transaction terms.
Performance data may be based on back-testing and is for illustrative purposes only.
The information is confidential and should not be distributed without prior written consent.

US Disclosures

Options: Complex instruments with a high degree of risk, suitable only for sophisticated investors.
ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency, geopolitical, and credit risks.
Unregistered Securities: May be "restricted securities" under Rule 144A or Regulation S.
The document may be distributed only to institutional investors or major U.S. institutional investors.

Jurisdictional Disclosures

UK: Communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, authorized by ECB, ACPR, and FCA.
France: Produced and/or distributed by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage, authorized by ECB and ACPR.
Germany: Distributed by BNPP S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, subject to limited regulation by BaFin.
Belgium: Distributed by BNPP Fortis SA/NV, authorized by ECB and National Bank of Belgium.
Ireland: Distributed by BNPP S.A., Dublin Branch, regulated in France.
Italy: Distributed by BNPP Succursale Italia, authorized and regulated by ECB, ACPR, and AMF.

Additional Information

The document can be accessed via BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
It is intended to generate discussion regarding products and investments, and may be subject to change or discontinuation.
No investment, financial, legal, or tax advice is provided. Investors are advised to consult independent professionals.

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