20180216-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_9页_257kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY - 16 February 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily update from BNP Paribas on Emerging Markets (EM) strategy and market developments. It provides insights on economic data, political events, and ratings decisions affecting EM and Latam markets, along with key contacts and legal disclosures.

Key Market Events

1. Czech Republic

• Q4 GDP data will be released today.
• Consensus estimate for GDP growth is 5.3%.
• Domestic and external conditions are supportive of economic activity.

2. Hungary

• S&P will rate Hungary today, with a positive outlook.
• An upgrade is probable, but the agency may wait until after the Parliamentary elections.

3. Egypt

• The Central Bank cut both the repo rate and deposit rate by 1% yesterday.
• This move aligns with expectations and brings real interest rates into positive territory for the first time in recent history.
• January CPI slowed to 17.1% from 21.9% in the previous month.

4. Lithuania, Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Moody's will rate these countries today.

Political Developments

South Africa

• Jacob Zuma's resignation has allowed Cyril Ramaphosa to take full control.
• Strong political momentum behind Ramaphosa is expected to boost confidence.
• A cabinet reshuffle is anticipated in the coming weeks.
• However, a quick turnaround in growth and fiscal fortunes should be treated with caution.

Latin America (Latam) Analysis

• A global conference call will be held at 3pm GMT on South Africa and its political implications.
• The analysis focuses on the transmission mechanism of long-term real rates into EM and Latam markets.
• Worst-case and base-case scenarios are simulated to assess the potential impact of EM/Latam premiums.
• The document emphasizes that US real interest rates are a key determinant of long-term trends in EM and Latam.

Key Contacts

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• It is intended for Relevant Persons as defined under MiFID II.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and the document must not be distributed without prior consent.
• Performance data may include back-testing and is for illustrative purposes only.
• Options, ETFs, and other securities may be subject to special disclosures and regulatory restrictions.
• Legal notice applies to various jurisdictions, including the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal, each with specific regulatory authorities and supervision structures.

Additional Information

• Online resources: BNP Paribas Global Markets Website and Strategy Website are referenced.
• Bloomberg: Contains Fixed Income Research, G10 Interest Rate Research, and Emerging Markets Research.
• STEER™: A trademark of BNP Paribas.

Disclaimer

• This document is for information purposes only and not intended to be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
• It does not constitute an offer to sell or an advertising of any financial instruments.
• No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Confidentiality and non-disclosure of information are strictly enforced.
• Indicative prices may vary based on different models and assumptions.

Summary of Main Points

• Czech Republic GDP is expected to rise to 5.3%.
• Hungary's S&P rating is on positive outlook, with an upgrade likely but possibly delayed.
• Egypt's rate cut aligns with expectations, moving real interest rates into positive territory.
• South Africa sees Ramaphosa's rise to power, with potential confidence boost and cabinet reshuffle.
• Latam analysis highlights the impact of US real interest rates on EM/Latam premiums.
• Global conference call is scheduled to discuss South Africa's political implications.
• The document includes key contacts and legal disclosures.
• Confidentiality and regulatory compliance are emphasized.
• Performance data is simulated and not guaranteed.
• Investment risks are highlighted, including market, counterparty, and liquidity risks.