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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY DAILY - 19 January 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of monetary policy decisions and market trends in Emerging Markets (EM) for the week of 19 January 2018. It highlights central bank actions in South Africa, Turkey, Hungary, and Indonesia, as well as market movements in Asia and Latin America (Latam), with a focus on FX and fixed income.

Key Policy Updates

South Africa

Central Bank (SARB) kept policy rates unchanged at 6.75%.
The decision was not unanimous, with a 5-1 split in the committee.
The SARB is cautious about potential currency downgrades, leading to overtightening of monetary policy.
Despite risks of temporary weakness, the ZAR is expected to return to an appreciation path, which will help reduce inflation.
Forward rates are seen as overly pessimistic regarding the ZAR's future performance.

Turkey

CBRT left the late liquidity window rate unchanged at 12.75%.
No changes to other corridor rates, consistent with market expectations.
The central bank will look through the decline in headline inflation due to base effects.
Forward guidance indicates no pre-emptive easing in the near term.

Hungary

The NBH offered a low supply in its first IRS tender of the year.
This led to a steeper yield curve, with the spread between EUR and HUF rates increasing from 64bp to 110bp.
The forint is still under appreciation pressure due to positive external balances.
A stronger forint is expected to flatten the curve, creating opportunities for investors in Hungarian rates.

Indonesia

Bank of Indonesia (BI) kept policy rates unchanged at 4.25%.
Despite sluggish economic growth, BI is holding rates steady.
Credit demand, not the cost of credit, is the main issue.
Rate cuts could destabilize the rupiah, especially with other central banks tightening.

Market Trends

Asia FX

Asia FX has rallied in line with a weaker dollar.
TWD was the top performer, up 0.5%.
Asia equities and credit are also broadly stronger.

Brazil

An analysis was published on the factors driving Brazilian fixed income performance.
The USDBRL hedging strategy was revised, with a shift from a 3-month call-spread to an 8-month call-spread.
Pension funds have increased foreign equity holdings, reducing fixed income exposure.

Mexico

A pension funds and local debt monitor was published.
Non-residents have reduced USD exposure in nominal rates.
Pension funds continue to increase foreign equity holdings.

EM Strategy Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8746
Piotr Chwieczak	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8715
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 1872
Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (Istanbul)	+90 216 635 2987

Legal and Regulatory Information

The document is a marketing communication, not independent investment research.
It is not investment advice, and users are advised to consult independent professionals.
Confidentiality is emphasized, and the document must not be copied or distributed without prior consent.
No liability is accepted for any use or reliance on the content.
The document does not constitute a prospectus or public offering.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions are based on public sources and may not be accurate or complete.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Indicative prices are based on internal models and available data, and may vary significantly from other sources.
BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest, including market-making, advisory roles, or investment banking activities.
The document may contain back-tested performance data, which is for illustrative purposes only.
Options and ETFs are complex instruments and may involve high risk.
U.S. disclosures include option risk and ETF investment risks, emphasizing the need for professional advice.

Useful Links

BNP Paribas Global Fixed Income Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
BNP Paribas Strategy Website: www.bnpparibas.com
Bloomberg Research:
- Fixed Income Research: BPFR
- G10 Interest Rate Research: BPBS
- Emerging Markets Research: BPFR
- Market Economics: BPEC

Regulatory Disclosures

UK: The document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch.
France: The report is produced and distributed by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage.
Germany: The report is distributed by BNPP S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland.
Belgium: The report is distributed by BNPP Fortis SA/NV, authorized and supervised by ECB and National Bank of Belgium.
Ireland: The report is distributed by BNPP S.A., Dublin Branch.

Final Notes

The document is for informational purposes only.
It may be subject to change or discontinued.
Transactions involving the products discussed may involve high risk and volatility.
No guarantee is made regarding the performance or results of any investment.