2014年-世界发展银行全球_Building_Moroccos_Resilience___Inputs_for_an_Integrated_Risk_Management_Strategy_68页_1mb

Summary of "Building Morocco's Resilience: Inputs for an Integrated Risk Management Strategy"

Core Content

This report outlines the development of an integrated risk management (IRM) strategy for Morocco, emphasizing the transition from sectoral to holistic risk management. It is a collaborative effort between the Government of Morocco (GoM) and the World Bank, supported by various international and national organizations. The report serves as a strategic input for the GoM to enhance its resilience to internal and external shocks, including natural disasters, energy price volatility, and agricultural risks.

Main Risks Addressed

The report focuses on three key risks that were identified as priorities by the GoM:

1. Natural Disasters

   • Morocco is exposed to earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and droughts.
   • Probabilistic risk assessments reveal that natural disasters could cost an average of MAD 5.0 billion annually.
   • An extreme scenario, such as a major earthquake in a densely populated area, could cost MAD 100 billion annually, equivalent to 5.1% of GDP and 23% of the national budget.
   • Early warning systems, flood risk plans, and a National Flood Protection Plan are already in place.

2. Commodity (Energy) Price Volatility

   • Morocco is highly dependent on oil imports.
   • In 2011 alone, energy price volatility had a MAD 30 billion negative impact on the national budget.
   • The GoM has initiated efforts to manage this risk, including diversifying energy sources, increasing domestic production, and modernizing compensation mechanisms.

3. Agricultural Risks

   • Agriculture employs 40% of the workforce and generates 15% of GDP.
   • Total exposure to agricultural risks was estimated at MAD 75 billion in 2008 and is projected to increase to MAD 185 billion by 2020.
   • The GoM has developed a National Strategy for Agricultural Risk Management, aiming to shift from post-crisis response to proactive risk mitigation.

Key Principles of Integrated Risk Management

• Strategic Shift: Risk management is evolving from a technical exercise to a strategic priority for governments.
• Integrated Approach: Moving from "silos" to a coordinated, multi-risk management strategy across different sectors and levels of government.
• Benefits: Enhanced economic growth, social stability, and attractiveness to foreign investment. It also allows for better budget anticipation and prioritization, and improves coordination across government ministries.

Institutional and Legal Framework

• Morocco has a legislative and institutional framework for disaster risk management, including the Centre de Veille et de Coordination (CVC) within the Ministry of the Interior.
• There are ongoing efforts to strengthen legal frameworks and institutional capacities, including proposed modifications to Law 34-08.
• The report highlights the need for horizontal and vertical integration of risk management across government bodies and with local actors.

Risk Management Process and Tools

• The report outlines eight key steps for successful risk management.
• It introduces the use of probabilistic risk analysis (MnhPRA), input-output (IO) models, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for risk assessment.
• Tools such as Early Warning Systems (EWS), Flood Warning Systems (FWS), and Disaster Risk Financing (DRFI) are discussed as part of the risk mitigation toolkit.

Collaborative Efforts and Partnerships

• The project is supported by the World Bank, GFDRR, SDC, TFESSD, and the FIRST initiative.
• Key advisors include Erwann Michel-Kerjan and Charles Scawthorn from the World Bank, as well as experts from various sectors and institutions.
• The report also references good practices from other countries, such as Vietnam, Mexico, India, and Colombia, in developing IRM strategies.

Roadmap for Implementation

• The IRM strategy is expected to be implemented in a phased manner, with actions categorized as short-term (1–2 years), medium-term (2–5 years), and long-term (>5 years).
• Table ES-1 summarizes key actions for each risk category, including both risk-specific and cross-cutting institutional measures.
• The strategy aims to improve communication, avoid overlapping actions, and benefit from economies of scale.

Conclusion

• The report underscores the importance of an integrated risk management approach for Morocco to build resilience against various shocks.
• It highlights the need for a coordinated, institutionalized, and flexible strategy that supports both sectoral and cross-sectoral risk mitigation.
• The IRM initiative is seen as a dynamic process, with the potential to expand to include more risks over time.

Key Takeaways

• Integrated Risk Management (IRM) is becoming a strategic priority for governments globally.
• Three key risks for Morocco are natural disasters, energy price volatility, and agricultural risks.
• Existing frameworks are in place, but they need to be strengthened and integrated.
• Collaboration with international organizations like the World Bank and GFDRR is crucial.
• Implementation roadmap includes short, medium, and long-term actions.
• IRM enhances resilience, supports informed decision-making, and can lead to better economic and social outcomes.