2016年-世界发展银行全球_Disaster_Risk_Management_and_Fiscal_Policy___Narratives_Tools_and_Evidence_Associated_with_Assessing_Fiscal_Risk_and_Building_Resilience_39页_3mb

Summary of "The Triple Dividend of Resilience: Disaster Risk Management and Fiscal Policy"

Core Content

This paper explores the integration of disaster risk management (DRM) into fiscal policy, emphasizing the co-benefits that can arise from synergistic strategies that combine DRM with development and climate change adaptation goals. It outlines a framework for understanding and managing fiscal risk associated with natural disasters, and highlights the importance of recognizing the economic and broader benefits of DRM in public finance planning.

Main Views

• Disaster Risk and Fiscal Vulnerability: Natural disasters lead to significant economic and social losses, and governments are exposed to these risks through their roles in providing relief, recovery, and reconstruction. These risks manifest as contingent liabilities, which are often not adequately accounted for in traditional fiscal planning.
• Shift in Investment Focus: There has been a noticeable shift from reactive (ex-post) disaster response to proactive (ex-ante) DRM investment. While ex-post relief and reconstruction still dominate, the proportion of ex-ante investment has increased from 5% to 13% over the past decade.
• Co-Benefits of DRM: DRM is not only a risk mitigation strategy but also a means to achieve co-benefits such as economic development and climate change adaptation. These co-benefits are positive externalities that arise from integrated strategies.
• Fiscal Risk and Hedge Matrices: The paper introduces the fiscal risk matrix and fiscal hedge matrix as analytical tools to identify and assess both liabilities and resources that are relevant to disaster management. Contingent liabilities, such as disaster relief and reconstruction, are marked in red in the fiscal risk matrix.
• Risk Financing Instruments: Governments are increasingly using risk financing instruments such as reserve funds, contingent credit lines, and sovereign insurance to manage disaster risk. These instruments help in addressing the fiscal gap that arises after disasters.
• Fiscal Stress Testing: The concept of fiscal stress testing is introduced as a method to evaluate the financial resilience of governments. It involves assessing the resource gap, which is the difference between the required resources for recovery and the available resources.

Key Information

• Fiscal Risk Matrix: Differentiates between direct and contingent liabilities, with the latter being more relevant to DRM.
• Fiscal Hedge Matrix: Identifies the sources of funding available to governments for both regular and disaster-related expenses.
• DRM Co-Benefits: Defined as positive externalities from integrated strategies that achieve multiple objectives simultaneously.
• Empirical Evidence: Case studies from various countries, including Mexico, Colombia, and Grenada, demonstrate the challenges and opportunities in fiscal risk management.
• CATSIM Model: A tool developed by IIASA that simulates disaster impacts and evaluates the financial resilience of countries. It has been used in global analyses to identify particularly vulnerable regions.
• Disaster Deficit Index (DDI): A metric derived from CATSIM that quantifies the ratio of disaster losses to available financing. A high DDI indicates significant fiscal vulnerability.
• Fiscal Stress Testing: Highlights the importance of considering the timing and magnitude of financial flows to manage the resource gap effectively.

Structure of the Paper

1. Introduction: Discusses the transition from reactive to proactive DRM and the importance of integrating DRM into fiscal policy.
2. Understanding Fiscal Risk: Explains the nature of fiscal risk, including the role of governments and the need to consider variability in disaster impacts.
3. Tools and Concepts: Introduces the fiscal risk and hedge matrices as tools for assessing fiscal risk and identifying resources.
4. Evidence of Planning for Contingent Liabilities: Reviews empirical data and case studies showing the extent of fiscal gaps and the challenges in managing them.
5. Analytical Tools to Assess Fiscal Risk and Gaps: Details the use of CATSIM and DDI as analytical tools to evaluate fiscal vulnerability and resilience.
6. Protecting Public Finance: Explores the use of ex-ante risk financing instruments and the shift from ex-post to ex-ante strategies.

Conclusion

The paper advocates for a more integrated approach to DRM and fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to recognize and realize the co-benefits of disaster resilience. It highlights the importance of using analytical tools and frameworks to assess and manage fiscal risk, and calls for more proactive and systematic risk management strategies to ensure long-term economic stability and development.