冯氏集团-亚洲采购更新（英文）-2021.4-18页_556kb

Asia Sourcing Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a 12-month sourcing outlook for key Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, with a focus on economic performance, trade dynamics, and policy developments. It highlights the varying degrees of optimism and challenges each country faces in the context of the ongoing global pandemic and evolving trade agreements.

12-Month Sourcing Outlook

Key Factors Influencing Sourcing Decisions

Costs, Speed, Compliance, and Capacity

• Cambodia: Maintains competitive costs, with a strong export sector, especially in electronics. The government's support for key industries and new FTAs enhance its appeal.
• Indonesia: Shows resilience with a trade surplus in March 2021 and a growing digital economy. The National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) is a key initiative to stimulate growth.
• The Philippines: Despite economic setbacks, manufacturing PMI improved in early 2021. The country is retaining investor confidence due to its strong economic outlook and improved ease of doing business.
• Thailand: Faces challenges due to a weak manufacturing PMI and a third wave of the pandemic. The government has introduced financial measures to support businesses.
• Vietnam: Strong export growth, supported by FTAs and foreign investment. The country is becoming a hub for electronics manufacturing, though it remains primarily in the assembling stage.

Trade and Investment Developments

Cambodia

• FTAs: Signed the China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) and concluded talks on the Cambodia-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA).
• Export Growth: Electrical equipment and electronic components exports surged by 31% yoy in 2020.
• Investment: The Council for the Development of Cambodia approved 238 investment projects worth US$8.2 billion in 2020, with continued inflows in Q1 2021.

Indonesia

• FTAs: Signed the Indonesia-Singapore BIT, enhancing investor confidence.
• Trade Performance: Exports hit a 10-year high in March 2021, with a trade surplus of US$1.57 billion.
• Economic Recovery: The PEN budget of Rp699.43 trillion is aimed at supporting MSMEs and boosting economic recovery.

The Philippines

• FTAs: The country is leveraging its existing trade agreements and securing orders from Myanmar.
• Export Performance: Garments and footwear exports showed signs of recovery in February 2021.
• Investment: Net FDI increased by 41.5% yoy in January 2021, indicating continued investor interest.

Thailand

• FTAs: Ratified the RCEP, which is expected to reduce tariffs on a large number of export items.
• Economic Impact: The third wave of the pandemic has stalled recovery, particularly in the tourism and manufacturing sectors.
• Support Measures: Financial support worth 350 billion baht was introduced to assist businesses.

Vietnam

• FTAs: Benefits from EVFTA, RCEP, and CPTPP, which are expected to boost export growth.
• Investment: Attracted US$10.13 billion in FDI in Q1 2021, with manufacturing and processing industries being the top sectors.
• Supply Chain Diversification: Becoming a key electronics production hub, though still reliant on foreign firms for value-added stages.

Summary of Key Metrics

Conclusion

The sourcing outlook across Southeast Asia and South/West Asia is mixed. Cambodia and Vietnam show the most positive signs, driven by FTAs and strong export performance. Indonesia and the Philippines have slightly negative outlooks but are expected to recover in 2021. Thailand faces the most significant challenges, with a negative outlook due to the impact of the pandemic on its tourism and manufacturing sectors. Each country's performance is influenced by its ability to manage the pandemic, implement supportive policies, and leverage trade agreements to enhance competitiveness.