【冯氏集团】亚洲采购报告：东南亚（2024年6月）_20页_640kb

Southeast Asia's sourcing outlook for 2024 shows mixed but predominantly positive signals across key countries. Economies like Cambodia and Indonesia demonstrate strong growth potential, while the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam face external challenges but maintain resilience through trade agreements, infrastructure investments, and shifting global demand. Below is a detailed summary by country, encompassing economic projections, trade performance, and key developments.

Cambodia
Economic growth is expected at 6.0% year-on-year for 2024, supported by infrastructure enhancements and FTA implementations like the Cambodia-China FTA and RCEP agreement. Exports remain robust, with the Generalized Framework Textiles (GFT) sector growing by 17.3% YoY, accounting for 45.4% of total exports. CPI growth is minimal in March 2024, indicating stability. Ongoing projects like the Funan Techo Canal aim to reduce transport costs and enhance trade connectivity.

Indonesia
Indonesia's economy is projected to grow at 5.11% for 2024, slightly exceeding initial forecasts. Manufacturing PMI indicates continuous expansion, contributing to a significant trade surplus in March 2024. Foreign direct investment surged, with Singapore as the largest investor, and AI infrastructure by Microsoft (US$1.7 billion) highlights digital advancement. Trade surplus is attributed to commodities like mineral fuels and machinery.

Philippines
The 2024 sourcing outlook is slightly positive, with GDP growth at 5.7% in Q1 2024. Despite export declines in March, overall merchandise exports increased 4.8% YoY. COVID-19 recovery is not fully reflected, but FDI inflows reversed downward trends, boosted by investments from the Netherlands and US companies. Challenges include inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, but optimism stems from new markets and policy support.

Thailand
2024 economic outlook is neutral, with projected growth between 2.4-3.2%, down from previous forecasts. Exports decreased in March, attributing to agricultural delays, but PMI shows slight recovery. FDI approval rose substantially, with electronics leading investments. Infrastructure projects like Eastern Economic Corridor's AI investment (Microsoft) aim to stimulate growth amid weak domestic consumption.

Vietnam
Vietnam's sourcing outlook is slightly positive, with GDP growth of 5.7% in Q1 2024. Exports recovered significantly, driven by trade agreements with China, the EU, and the US. Strong foreign investment includes partnerships like Vietnam-FPT Corp with Nvidia, investing US$200 million in AI infrastructure. Commodity price volatility and global tensions pose risks, but digital and technological advancements fortify the sector.

Cross-country Highlights
All countries emphasize FTA negotiations and infrastructure upgrades for trade expansion. Supply chain diversification emerges as a key strategy due to geopolitical shifts. Economic resilience is underpinned by manufacturing growth, but dependencies on external markets require ongoing adaptation. AI and digital infrastructure investments, such as those from Microsoft, are accelerating regional economic modernization. Despite challenges like inflation and global slowdowns, most nations retain growth targets and confidence in 2024.