2025-05-28-Jefferies-临时护士人员配置_需求转为正向（周环比增长0.8_）；费率下降（周环比下降0.9_）_9页_370kb

Report Summary

Healthcare Services Equity Research
Date: May 28, 2025

Demand and Pricing Dynamics

The demand index for temporary RNs increased +0.8% week-over-week, the first positive change in six weeks. However, jobs available decreased by 0.9% and median bill rates on Fastaff dropped by 0.9% to $2,346/wk. While the increase in demand is encouraging, the simultaneous decline in rates suggests potential market adjustments.

Jefferies highlights that the recent drop in Fastaff rates may be influenced by unusually high posted positions, which do not reflect broader industry trends. Other data sources show rate stability, underscoring the need to analyze multiple data points (e.g., Ingenovis and Vivian indices) for a comprehensive view.

2Q25 Guidance and Risk Factors

AMN's 2Q25 guidance indicates a sequential decline (in the -MSD% range) at flat rates, implying lower utilization despite stable billing. Risks include persistently weak hospital volumes and margin compression.

Valuation and Market View

• AMN Healthcare (HOLD): Valued at ~14.1x EV/EBITDA. Risks include hospital utilization trends, reduced contingent labor use, and IT implementation disruptions.
• Cross Country Healthcare (HOLD): Similar valuation approach. Risks include declining utilization and margin pressures.

Key Takeaways

• Improved demand emerges, reversing recent declines, but paired with lower rates complicate the outlook.
• Multiple data sources are necessary to avoid skewed interpretations, with Fastaff’s trends notably diverging from others.
• 2Q25 guidance raises concerns about core business volumes, offset slightly by stable rates.

This week's data points to a mixed but cautiously optimistic market, with demand stabilization countered by persistent cost pressures and execution risks.