2023-08-29-IMF-Climate_Challenges_in_Fragile_and_Conflict-Affected_States_51页_2mb

报告摘要

Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), comprising about 20% of countries and hosting nearly 1 billion people, face disproportionate climate challenges due to limited adaptive capacity.

Key Findings

Frequency of Climate Impacts: FCS experience extreme weather events every 4 years on average, with insufficient recovery time.
Temperature Projections: By 2040-59, FCS will have 61 days/year above 35°C (vs 15 days in non-FCS) under high emissions scenario.
GDP Losses: Cumulative GDP losses reach 4% after 3 years post-disaster in FCS (vs 1% in non-FCS).
Drought Impact: GDP per capita growth decreases by 0.2pp/yr (low emissions) and 0.4pp/yr (high emissions) due to worsening drought conditions.
Food Security: Food production in FCS is twos more sensitive to drought, potentially pushing 50 million additional people into hunger by 2060.
Conflict Link: Climate shocks increase conflict intensity by 8.5% (up to 14%) in FCS populations by 2060.

Policy Recommendations

Short-term Responses:
- Strengthen fiscal and foreign reserves
- Implement social safety nets
- Develop sovereign insurance mechanisms
Long-term Adaptation:
- Integrate climate resilience into peacebuilding efforts
- Improve governance and combat corruption
- Scale climate-smart agriculture and resilient infrastructure
- Enhance financial inclusion