2014年-世界发展银行全球_World_Bank_Group_Assistance_to_Low-Income_Fragile_and_Conflict-Affected_States___An_Independent_Evaluation_227页_13mb

Summary of World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Core Content

This document presents an independent evaluation of the World Bank Group's (WBG) assistance to low-income fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS), highlighting the relevance, effectiveness, and challenges of the Bank's engagement in these contexts.

The evaluation covers a wide range of areas including country assistance strategies, portfolio performance, state capacity building, citizen capacity development, inclusive growth and jobs, gender disparities, and donor coordination. It is based on a comprehensive analysis of the Bank's operations, strategies, and performance in 33 FCS countries, compared to 31 non-FCS IDA-only countries.

Key Findings

1. Population and Poverty in FCS

• About 370 million people live in low-income FCS.
• These countries have higher poverty rates, lower growth rates, and weaker human development indicators compared to other low-income countries.
• Poverty rates in Always FCS (countries that have always been classified as FCS) are 57% (based on $1.25 a day), while in Never FCS (countries never classified as FCS), it is 43%.

2. Bank Group Strategy and Relevance

• The Bank Group has identified support to FCS as a strategic priority.
• Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) in FCS have lacked tailoring to fragility and conflict drivers, realism, and contingency plans for political economy and conflict risks.
• The 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on conflict, security, and development has not had a significant impact on Bank operations in FCS.

3. Portfolio Performance

• IDA financing to FCS more than doubled from FY01 to FY12.
• In FY07–12, total commitment to FCS was $11.5 billion from IDA and $4.4 billion from trust funds.
• In contrast, total commitment to non-FCS IDA-only countries was $32.9 billion from IDA and $5.2 billion from trust funds.
• The infrastructure sector dominates new commitments in FCS, followed by human development.
• Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) have seen a five-fold increase in spending, showing a growing emphasis on capacity building.

4. Private Sector Development (PSD)

• Financial support for PSD in FCS has remained modest.
• IFC has approved $1.7 billion in investments between FY01 and FY12, with $1.3 billion invested in FY07–12.
• IFC's investments are highly concentrated in telecommunications, transportation, oil, gas, and mining.
• MIGA's guarantees in FCS totaled $1.3 billion between FY01 and FY12, with $1.1 billion in FY07–12.

5. State Capacity Building

• Building state capacity in FCS requires a deep understanding of conflict and fragility drivers.
• Public expenditure management (PEM) has been effective, but progress is uneven across countries and reform areas.
• Procurement remains a challenge despite efforts to build technical capacity.
• Revenue collection and management has improved, especially in the mining sector, but compliance with Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) standards is lower in FCS than in non-FCS.
• Civil service reform has not seen much traction.
• Decentralization is seen as a critical tool to improve service delivery and citizen accountability.

6. Citizen Capacity Development

• The Bank has made progress in health and education through community-driven development (CDD).
• However, CDD programs face sustainability challenges due to the lack of a sustaining mechanism.
• Security sector support and justice activities are also part of the Bank's engagement in FCS.

7. Inclusive Growth and Jobs

• The Bank Group lacks a realistic framework for inclusive growth and jobs in FCS.
• Aid flows to FCS have increased globally, but IDA's contribution has not kept pace.
• FCS receive less aid per capita from IDA compared to other low-income countries.

8. Gender Disparities

• The Bank has been relatively effective in mainstreaming gender in health, education, and CDD.
• However, conflict-related violence against women and economic empowerment of women in FCS remain under-addressed.

9. Aid Flows and Donor Coordination

• Multi-Donor Trust Funds (MDTFs) play a significant role in aid delivery to FCS.
• Donor coordination is critical to reducing the burden on weak state institutions and maximizing impact.
• The Multicountry Demobilization and Reintegration Program (MDRP) and the Statebuilding and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF) are key MDTFs.

Main Recommendations

To improve the relevance and effectiveness of assistance to FCS, the evaluation recommends:

• Developing a more accurate classification mechanism for FCS.
• Tailoring country strategies to the specific context of fragility and conflict.
• Enhancing institutional capacity building at national and subnational levels.
• Improving the sustainability of community development programs.
• Addressing the effects of violence against women in FCS.
• Creating a realistic framework for inclusive growth and jobs in FCS.
• Adapting the business models and incentives of IFC and MIGA to better serve FCS.

Key Information

• The evaluation is conducted by the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG).
• It includes six country case studies, portfolio analysis, human resources data, and stakeholder surveys.
• The Bank Group's performance in FCS is assessed against Never FCS IDA-only countries.
• The 2011 WDR framework has not been fully operationalized in FCS.
• ODA to FCS is lower per capita than to other low-income countries.
• IFC and MIGA activities are based on corporate strategy and client availability, not directly on CASs.
• Bank Group operations in FCS have had better outcome ratings since FY09, but Africa Region lagged initially.

Conclusion

The World Bank Group's engagement in FCS is strategically important but faces challenges in long-term sustainability and effectiveness. While progress has been made in several areas, including state capacity building, gender mainstreaming, and infrastructure development, there remains a need for more targeted strategies, realistic frameworks, and effective coordination to better support the poverty reduction mission in these contexts.