2006-11-30-美国商务部-Residential_Propane_Price_Analysis_2006_5页_40kb

Residential Propane Price Analysis Summary (2006)

Background

This report, based on the Propane Education and Research Act of 1996 (PERA), analyzes changes in residential-grade propane prices relative to other energy sources. It uses only public data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and compares indexed prices annually to determine if the 5-year rolling average price index of propane exceeds the composite index of residential electricity, residential natural gas, and No. 2 fuel oil by more than 10.1% relative to 1996. If exceeded, PERA restricts the Propane Education and Research Council's activities to R&D, training, and safety matters.

Analysis

The analysis compares residential propane prices to a weighted composite index of energy costs, using household expenditure data. Key findings from 1997 to 2005 include:

• The ratio of residential propane price to the composite energy price index increased from 0.94 to 1.07, indicating consistent price growth but remaining below the threshold of 1.101.
• Residential propane prices rose by 74.8% from 1996 to 2005, with rapid increases occurring between 2003 and 2005 (15.6% annually).
• Compared to other energy sources, propane's price growth relative to the composite index slowed slightly in 2005, while residential natural gas and No. 2 fuel oil prices showed substantial increases (total 102.1% and 153.3% since 1996).
• Electricity prices showed modest growth (12.8% total since 1996), contrasting with faster increases in natural gas and fuel oil.

Conclusion

The report concludes that residential propane prices have not surpassed the PERA threshold, ensuring that no restrictions will be imposed on PERC activities. Continuous monitoring is required annually to track price trends.