2011-08-31-美国商务部-Oil_Heat_Price_Analysis_2011_5页_135kb

报告摘要

Background

The National Oilheat Research Alliance (NORA) was established under the National Oilheat Research Alliance Act of 2000 to coordinate oilheat industry R&D, training, and consumer education.
Section 708 of the Act requires the Department of Commerce to analyze oilheat prices relative to residential electricity, natural gas, and propane prices annually starting 2 years post-NORA's establishment. If oilheat prices exceed the composite energy price by more than 10.1% over a rolling 5-year average, NORA's non-research activities (like consumer education) would be restricted.

Analysis Method

Uses annual price data for residential electricity, natural gas, propane, and oilheat.
Calculates a 5-year rolling average price composite index for oilheat versus a weighted composite index for residential electricity, natural gas, and propane.
Index calculations adjusted by household energy expenditure weights from the 2005 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS).

Key Findings (2000-2010)

Price Growth:
- Since NORA's establishment in 2000, residential oilheat prices increased 113.4%
- Residential electricity prices rose 40.5% since 2000
- Residential natural gas prices increased 44.2% since 2000
- Propane prices nearly doubled (approx. 90% increase)
- Compared to previous period (2002-2008) averaging 19.3% annual growth for residential energies, oilheat grew faster at 24.8%
Price Ratio:
- The 5-year rolling average residential oilheat price to composite energy price index ratio increased from 0.59 (2000) to 1.03 (2010)
- Despite the increasing ratio, it remained below the 1.101 threshold (10.1% excess) mandated by Section 708.
Conclusion:
- Because oilheat prices did not exceed the composite energy price index by more than 10.1%, NORA is not required to restrict activities (like consumer protection initiatives) beyond research, training, and safety projects.