20230718-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_830kb

Report Overview: This is a fixed income credit commentary dated July 18, 2023, from CMBI analysts covering Asian G3 bonds, macroeconomics, and market updates.

Bond and Market Updates:

• Asian IG bonds overall unchanged; high-beta names like XIAOMI and MEITUA weakened, with yields rising or curves downshifting.
• LGFV space inactive; demand for high-yield bonds noted; Chinese SOEs secure better bids.
• Trading desk observations include DALWAN's impact on Chinese properties due to funding shortfall and S&P downgrade.
• Offshore Asia new issues pipeline includes relevant bond details.

Macroeconomic Recap:

• US markets rose, with S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq up; China Q2 GDP grew 6.3% YoY, below expectations, and unemployment at 5.2%.
• Treasury yields steady; service and industrial output improved in June, supporting sector recovery.

China Economy Analysis:

• GDP forecast revised to 5.1% for 2023 and 4.8% for 2024 due to weak growth; property market contraction worsened, with developers showing caution.
• Retail sales slowed to 3.1% YoY growth; employment and consumer confidence are key areas for policy intervention.
• Infrastructure investment robust, but local government contingent debt is a risk; auto and electronics sectors show recovery.

News and Market Color:

• DALWAN faces USD 200mn funding gap; Evergrande's financial outlook uncertain.
• Onshore primary issuances involved RMB745bn raised; new terms like HEARTFELT bonds traded but fell lower.
• YNPOWE's energy bond options noted, delaying some transactions.

Author Certification and Important Disclosures:

• Authors certify personal views on covered securities and disclose any conflicts.
• CMBI highlights risks, the need for independent investment advice, and limitations of the report, with jurisdictional disclaimers for UK, US, and Singapore.