2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Role_of_Pluriactivity_in_Farm_Exit_and_Labour_Supply_Decisions_15页_278kb

Summary of "The Role of Pluriactivity in Farm Exit and Labour Supply Decisions"

Core Content

This paper investigates the role of pluriactivity—defined as the engagement in multiple activities—in shaping farm exit and labour supply decisions among farmers in Ireland. The study explores two distinct forms of pluriactivity: within the farm gate (farm diversification) and beyond the farm gate (multiple job holding or off-farm employment). The paper uses empirical models based on farm-level data from the Teagasc National Farm Survey to quantify the relationship between pluriactivity, off-farm labour, and the likelihood of farm exit, particularly in the context of retirement and non-succession.

Main Views

• Pluriactivity has been studied for over a century and is interpreted in various ways, including farm diversification and off-farm employment.
• Within the farm gate pluriactivity refers to the diversification of agricultural enterprises, such as livestock, crops, and forestry, while beyond the farm gate pluriactivity involves non-agricultural employment or income.
• Pluriactivity can inhibit structural change in the farming sector by allowing small or unprofitable farms to survive through off-farm income.
• The paper focuses on the impact of pluriactivity on farm exit and off-farm labour supply, with particular emphasis on the transition from farming to non-farming and the succession process.

Key Findings

1. Relationship Between Farm Diversification and Off-Farm Labour Supply

• Farms that are more diversified (within the farm gate) are less likely to engage in off-farm employment.
• The first empirical model shows that farm diversification negatively correlates with off-farm participation.
• This suggests a trade-off between diversification and off-farm work, where diversified farms may have more stable income and less need for external employment.

2. Impact of Off-Farm Employment on Farm Exit

• The second model investigates the relationship between off-farm employment and farm exit, especially in the context of retirement and non-succession.
• It confirms that part-time farmers (those engaged in off-farm employment) are less likely to have a successor.
• The presence of a potential successor is a key factor in determining whether a farm is on the path to exit.
• The model also highlights that farm operators over 55 years old are more likely to be on the path to exit, and off-farm employment is less common among them.

3. Data and Methodology

• The data used comes from the Teagasc National Farm Survey (NFS), covering the period from 1996 to 2011.
• The off-farm labour supply model is based on data from 2002 to 2009, while the farm exit model is based on 2011 data.
• The paper uses probit models for the farm exit analysis and similar methods for the off-farm labour model.
• The farm diversification variable is calculated as the percentage of gross output from non-main enterprises, using the formula:

$$
\text{Farm Diversification} = 100 - \left(\frac{\text{Gross Output of Main Farm Enterprise}}{\text{Gross Output of All Farm Enterprises}} \times 100\right)
$$

• The off-farm participation variable is defined as a binary variable (0 or 1), while the number of off-farm hours is a continuous variable.

4. Economic and Demographic Insights

• Age is a significant factor in both models, with older farmers more likely to be on the path to exit.
• Spouse involvement in off-farm work is associated with lower off-farm participation by the farm operator.
• Married farmers are more likely to be involved in off-farm work.
• The presence of young family members on the farm is negatively correlated with off-farm participation and positively correlated with the likelihood of having a successor.
• Farm size and profitability are also important, with larger and more profitable farms more likely to have successors.

Conclusions

• The results suggest that pluriactivity has a dual effect on the farming sector: it can delay structural change by allowing unprofitable farms to survive, but it can also influence the succession process by reducing the probability of a successor.
• The findings are specific to Ireland, but they offer insights into the broader implications of pluriactivity on the evolution of the agricultural sector.
• The study highlights the importance of demographic and economic factors in shaping the future of farming, particularly in the context of retirement and non-succession.

References to Supporting Data

• Table 1 presents the mean values of variables for both the off-farm labour supply model and the farm exit model.
• Table 2 provides the results of the off-farm labour supply model, showing the statistical significance of various factors, including farm diversification, age, system, size, and family composition.
• The farm exit model is based on cross-sectional probit analysis, and the results confirm the negative impact of off-farm employment on succession.

Implications

• The study underscores the complex interplay between pluriactivity, farm viability, and succession.
• It suggests that policy interventions should consider the dual role of pluriactivity in both sustaining farms and facilitating structural change.
• The findings are particularly relevant for understanding the dynamics of farm exit and labour supply in the Irish context, and they may inform agricultural policy in other EU countries.