2010年-IMF国际货币组织全球_From_Stimulus_to_Consolidation_91页_2mb

Fiscal Monitor Summary (May 14, 2010)

Core Content

The Fiscal Monitor published by the IMF in May 2010 provides a comprehensive analysis of global fiscal developments and challenges in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It emphasizes the need for fiscal adjustment to ensure long-term sustainability and outlines key trends in fiscal balances, debt levels, and policy responses across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.

Main Themes

1. Fiscal Risks and Outlook

• Fiscal risks have increased, particularly in advanced economies, due to:

  • Deteriorating underlying fiscal trends since the November 2009 Monitor.
  • Heightened market focus on fiscal weaknesses.
  • Slow progress in defining fiscal exit strategies.

• Global fiscal deficit is expected to decrease from 6.7% of GDP in 2009 to 6% in 2010, but the improvement is less than anticipated.

• Advanced economies face a worsening fiscal outlook:

  • Overall fiscal balances are projected to worsen in 2010, with the CA primary balance deteriorating by 0.6 percentage points of GDP.
  • The average general government gross debt ratio is expected to rise from 91% of GDP in 2009 to 110% in 2015.
  • This increase is larger than in emerging economies, which are expected to see a gradual decline in debt-to-GDP ratios starting in 2011.

• Emerging economies:

  • CA fiscal balances are expected to improve in 2011, but only by about half of the November 2009 projections.
  • They continue to run primary deficits, but these are expected to stabilize or decline if the interest rate-growth differential remains favorable.

• Low-income economies:

  • Fiscal positions are improving, albeit at a slower pace than expected.
  • Commodity producers are seeing the most significant gains due to rising prices and export volumes.

2. Fiscal Implications for Debt Markets

• Financing needs are rising in many countries, especially in advanced economies, where historically high financing requirements are expected in 2010.

• Borrowing conditions have become more divergent across euro area members, reflecting increased market scrutiny of fiscal conditions.

• Government bond yields and spreads are closely linked to fiscal sustainability. Countries with weaker fiscal positions face higher yields and spreads, increasing their vulnerability to market pressures.

3. Fiscal Policy Outlook: Adjustment Needs and Plans

• Fiscal adjustment is essential to ensure long-term sustainability, particularly in advanced economies where public debt is projected to rise significantly.

• Adjustment needs:

  • Advanced economies: To bring gross debt below 60% of GDP by 2030, a CA primary balance adjustment of 8.75 percentage points of GDP is needed, which is 0.75 percentage points more than the previous estimate.
  • Emerging economies: A smaller adjustment of 2.5 percentage points of GDP is required to restore debt to prudent levels.

• Key drivers of fiscal adjustment:

  • Health and pension spending is expected to increase by 4–5 percentage points of GDP over the next two decades, especially in aging populations.
  • Military spending and higher interest costs due to increased debt levels also contribute to fiscal pressures.

• Policy considerations:

  • Governments should implement structural reforms now to strengthen medium-term fiscal trends.
  • Early tightening of fiscal policy is recommended in countries with strong recovery or weak fiscal credibility.
  • Some countries can delay fiscal consolidation until 2011.

4. Adjustment Measures and Institutions

• Spending measures:

  • Freezes on non-entitlement spending could generate savings of about 3% of GDP over the next decade.
  • Health and pension reforms are particularly urgent in economies with unfavorable demographic trends.

• Revenue measures:

  • Tax increases, especially on tobacco and alcohol, carbon taxation, and property taxes, are recommended to raise revenues with minimal economic distortion.
  • Elimination of below-standard VAT rates could also yield significant revenue gains.

• Institutional reforms:

  • Fiscal rules and enhanced medium-term frameworks are essential to ensure credible and sustainable fiscal adjustment.
  • Tax evasion remains a major challenge in many countries and should be addressed as a priority.

Key Findings

• Fiscal sustainability is a critical concern as public debt levels remain high.
• Adjustment efforts are necessary but vary significantly across countries.
• Emerging economies are in a better position to stabilize or reduce debt ratios than advanced economies.
• Market sensitivity to fiscal performance is increasing, making fiscal policy more challenging.
• Structural reforms are needed to address long-term spending pressures and improve fiscal credibility.

Conclusion

The Fiscal Monitor underscores the importance of timely and credible fiscal adjustment to avoid long-term sustainability risks. It highlights that while advanced economies face the most significant challenges, emerging economies are also expected to require substantial fiscal reforms. The report calls for policy measures that enhance economic efficiency, fiscal sustainability, and confidence in public finances.