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Debt Report 2020 - Edition I Summary

Overview of the Report

This report is the first in a new series of Debt Reports for 2020, aiming to provide regular online analyses of external and public debt trends in low- and middle-income countries. It complements the International Debt Statistics (IDS 2020), using detailed loan-by-loan data from the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) and high-frequency databases like Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) and Quarterly Public Debt Statistics (PSDS). The report highlights evolving trends, borrowing patterns, and current debt levels, while also addressing initiatives to improve debt measurement and monitoring.

Regional Overview 2018

Net Financial Flows

• Total net financial flows (debt and equity) to low- and middle-income countries in 2018: $1 trillion
• 19% decrease from 2017, driven by:
  • 31% drop in net debt inflows to $516 billion
  • 49% reduction in portfolio equity inflows
• FDI inflows remained stable at $469 billion
• China was the largest recipient of net financial flows, accounting for $472 billion (46%)

Regional Breakdown

• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): $272 billion (27%)
• East Asia and Pacific (EAP) (excluding China): $115 billion (11%)
• South Asia (SAS): Equity inflows made up 60% of total inflows
• Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Net debt flows were negative (-$11 billion)

External Debt Stocks

• Total external debt stocks: $7.8 trillion, up 5.3% from 2017
• The increase was due to:
  • Net debt inflows of $516 billion
  • Exchange rate valuation changes (as nearly half of external debt is not denominated in USD)

East Asia and Pacific

Net Financial Flows

• Total: $587 billion, down 5% from 2017
• China accounted for $472 billion (80%) of the region's net inflows

Key Trends

• FDI inflows rose 11% to $61 billion
• Portfolio equity flows were negative, with outflows of $11.7 billion
• Net debt inflows totaled $323 billion, down 17% from 2017

Creditor Composition

• Commercial banks were the largest source of net debt inflows, accounting for $30 billion
• Bonds accounted for $99 billion, up slightly from 2017
• Multilateral institutions contributed $6.6 billion to long-term debt inflows

Country-Level Highlights

• Indonesia and Philippines/Thailand accounted for 46% of net debt inflows
• Cambodia and Lao PDR saw significant increases in net inflows to non-guaranteed private sector entities due to bond issuance

Europe and Central Asia

Net Financial Flows

• Total: $-11 billion, marking a negative trend
• Russia was the main driver of outflows, with a $58 billion outflow in 2018
• Turkey recorded a $8 billion inflow, down from $51 billion in 2017

Key Trends

• Net debt inflows fell to $-52 billion, a marked contrast to $94 billion in 2017
• Long-term debt outflows were $61 billion, due to:
  • Lower disbursements of new financing
  • Higher principal repayments by public sector borrowers
• FDI inflows to Russia fell $17 billion, due to geopolitical concerns and weak economic growth

Country-Level Highlights

• Armenia saw a 350% increase in net financial flows due to FDI and private debt
• Belarus and Bulgaria also recorded significant increases, driven by FDI

Latin America and the Caribbean

Net Financial Flows

• Total: $272 billion, up 11% from 2017
• Net equity inflows fell 24%, but net debt inflows increased 63% to $159 billion

Key Trends

• Short-term debt inflows surged by 275%, while long-term debt inflows increased by 33%
• IMF provided a $57 billion bailout to Argentina, leading to $29 billion disbursements in 2018
• Multilateral creditors accounted for one-third of long-term net debt inflows in 2018, up from 3% in 2017

Country-Level Highlights

• Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico accounted for 80% of net financial flows
• Mexico saw a 25% decline in net financial flows due to contraction in both debt and equity inflows
• Brazil and Colombia/Peru recorded significant increases in net debt inflows

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Net Financial Flows

• Total: $43.8 billion, slightly unchanged from 2017
• Composition shift:
  • Sharp decline in official creditors' inflows
  • Outflow of short-term debt
  • 67% rise in long-term debt inflows from private creditors

Key Trends

• FDI inflows remained stable
• Bond issuance by public and private sector borrowers fell by 25% to $90 billion
• Public sector borrowers saw a 21% decline in new issuance due to domestic market opportunities
• Private sector borrowers saw a 38% decline in new issuance, mainly due to trade uncertainties with the U.S.

Country-Level Highlights

• Bilateral and multilateral debt inflows were mixed
• World Bank and IMF contributions to long-term debt inflows were modest
• Net debt inflows to the region rose to $24.2 billion, driven by private creditors

Key Takeaways

• China remained the largest recipient of net financial flows globally in 2018
• FDI and debt inflows were the main drivers of net financial flows in most regions
• Net debt inflows in East Asia and Pacific were down 17%, while Latin America and the Caribbean saw a 63% increase
• Europe and Central Asia faced a negative net financial flow due to Russia's outflow
• Debt composition shifted in several regions, with a greater reliance on private creditors in Latin America and the Caribbean and MENA
• Debt management and borrowing patterns were influenced by exchange rates, domestic market opportunities, and geopolitical factors