世界发展银行-Debt-Report-2020-Edition-III_7页_361kb

DEBT REPORT 2020 EDITION III Summary

Core Content

The DEBT Report 2020 EDITION III provides an in-depth analysis of external and public debt trends in low- and middle-income countries, with a focus on the impact of the COVID-19 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). It also highlights the challenges in debt data reporting due to the pandemic and offers an overview of bond issuance patterns in 2019.

Main Points

1. Overview of the Debt Report Series

• The report is part of a series published quarterly in 2020.
• It complements the International Debt Statistics (IDS 2020) by offering more detailed and disaggregated analyses.
• It uses data from the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS), Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS), and Quarterly Public Debt Statistics (QPSD).
• The report aims to improve debt transparency, data coverage, and international data harmonization.

2. Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)

• Launched by the G-20 and Paris Club on April 15, 2020.
• Designed to suspend debt service payments for eligible countries (IDA-eligible and UN Least Developed Countries) that request forbearance and are benefiting from or have requested IMF financing.
• Excludes countries with protracted arrears to official and private creditors.
• Eligible countries must commit to:
  • Using fiscal space for social, health, or economic expenditures.
  • Disclosing all public sector debt.
  • Avoiding new non-concessional debt during the suspension period, except under DSSI or IMF Debt Limit Policy (DLP).

3. New DSSI Dataset

• A more detailed dataset was released, including:
  • Disaggregated information on public and publicly guaranteed debt stocks.
  • Projected debt service payments by creditor type and country.
  • Monthly and annual projections.
• Available on the World Bank Debt Portal with an interactive dashboard and comprehensive note on definitions and methodology.

Key Debt Statistics

External Debt Stock (End-2018)

• Total external debt stock for 68 DSSI-eligible countries was $489 billion.
• Multilateral creditors (including the IMF) accounted for 45% of the total.
• Bilateral creditors accounted for 35%.
• Non-official creditors (bondholders, commercial banks, etc.) accounted for 20%.

Projected Debt Service Payments (2019)

• Total projected debt service payments in 2019: $45.8 billion.
• Principal payments: $32.5 billion.
• Interest payments: $13.3 billion.
• Multilateral creditors contributed 27% of debt service payments.
• Non-official creditors contributed 39% due to higher interest rates and shorter maturities.

Impact of the Pandemic on Debt Reporting

• The pandemic delayed the compilation and dissemination of debt data.
• 86 out of 120 low- and middle-income countries reporting to the DRS had submitted their 2019 data by end-June 2020 (72%).
• Several countries requested extensions due to pandemic-related disruptions.
• South Asia had 100% coverage of reported countries, while Latin America and the Caribbean and Europe and Central Asia had 61% and 67%, respectively.
• Major borrowers such as Brazil, Russia, and Ghana had not submitted their reports.
• Preliminary estimates for IDS 2021 will be generated using fiscal accounts, balance of payments data, and creditor sources if full data are unavailable.

Bond Issuance in 2019

• Total bond issuance by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2019: $386 billion, a 28% increase from 2018, but below the 2017 peak of $405 billion.
• Private sector issuance surged by 80% to $171 billion, while sovereign and public sector issuance increased only 4% to $215 billion.
• China was the dominant issuer, with $183 billion in bond issuance (47% of total), up from 29% in 2018.
• Private sector issuance in China rose by 93% (to $97 billion), and public sector issuance by 125% (to $86 billion).
• Other LMICs saw an average 5% decline in bond issuance, with private sector issuance increasing sharply (65%) to offset public sector contraction (23%).

Regional Bond Issuance Trends

Conclusion

The DEBT Report 2020 EDITION III underscores the importance of debt transparency and data accuracy in the context of the pandemic and the DSSI. It highlights the divergent patterns in debt composition and bond issuance across regions and debtor types, emphasizing the role of China and the private sector in driving debt dynamics. The report also notes the challenges in data reporting and the need for improved data collection mechanisms to support more informed policy decisions.