世界发展银行-Debt-Report-2021-Edition-II_10页_307kb

报告摘要

DEBT REPORT 2021 EDITION II Summary

Core Content

The DEBT Report 2021 Edition II provides an analysis of external and public debt trends in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for 2020. It highlights the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on debt dynamics, the role of China as a major borrower, the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), and the ongoing efforts to improve debt measurement and data harmonization.

Main Points

1. External Debt Trends

Combined external debt stock of 120 LMICs reached $8.4 trillion at the end of 2020.
In 2020, LMICs added $220 billion to their external debt, with China being a key driver.
China’s external debt stock increased by 11% to $2.3 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020, driven by a 16.4% rise in long-term debt and 7.6% in short-term debt.
Other major borrowers saw contractions in external debt, with an average decline of 3.6% in the first nine months of 2020.
Regional disparities were evident:
- Middle East and North Africa saw the fastest debt accumulation (8.9% increase).
- Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean experienced contractions of 1.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
- South Asia had a marginal increase in external debt, while Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 2.8% increase, slightly lower than the 9.7% rise in 2019.
QEDS data is a strong indicator of debt trends and is used to assess the volume and composition of LMICs’ external debt, with 67 countries (55%) reporting regularly to QEDS.
Non-QEDS reporting countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, are often the poorest and have weak debt management capacity.

2. Bond Issuance in 2020

Total bond issuance by LMICs in 2020 reached $388 billion, a 3% increase from the previous year.
Chinese entities dominated issuance, with $178 billion in total, representing 46% of all LMIC bond issuance, up from 35% in 2019.
Private sector issuance rose 23% to $159 billion, while sovereign and public sector issuance declined by 7% to $229 billion.
Latin America and the Caribbean saw the largest increase in bond issuance (22%), driven by private sector activity.
Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a sharp decline in bond issuance, dropping to $5.9 billion in 2020 (70% below 2019), due to market uncertainty and investor aversion.
Ghana, Honduras, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and Côte d'Ivoire were notable for their bond issuance in 2020 and early 2021.

3. Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)

The DSSI, launched by the G-20 and Paris Club, suspended debt service payments for 73 LMICs.
$5.7 billion in debt service payments were suspended in 2020, with $2.5 billion delivered by Paris Club creditors.
Debt service obligations for DSSI participants reached $9.8 billion in 2020 (May–December) and $7.3 billion in the first half of 2021.
12 largest borrowers accounted for 85% of total DSSI-related debt service.
Non-participating countries had $163 billion in public and publicly guaranteed debt at end-2019, with 83% of this concentrated in 8 countries.
Private creditors accounted for a significant share of debt in Ghana, Mongolia, and Nigeria (58%, 44%, and 41%, respectively), compared to multilateral creditors in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Cambodia (66%, 72%, and 65%, respectively).

4. New Initiative: Domestic Public Debt Data Compilation

A new initiative aims to compile domestic public debt data for LMICs, addressing a growing data gap.
Domestic debt has become an increasingly important part of the financing mix for LMICs.
Domestic debt accounts for around 30% of total public debt on average, though this varies by country.
Non-resident holdings of local currency debt have grown, increasing exposure to capital outflows and shorter maturities.
The Quarterly Public Sector Debt (QPSD) database, launched in 2010, aims to provide quarterly public sector debt data, but less than 40% of LMICs report to it.
A survey of 70 DRS member countries revealed:
- Residency is the most common criterion for defining domestic and external debt.
- Legislative frameworks exist for domestic borrowing in most countries.
- Over 40% of countries use the IMF’s Public Sector Debt Statistics guide.
- All countries compile central government debt data, but sectoral coverage and consolidation mechanisms are inconsistent.

Key Information

China is the largest borrower among LMICs, accounting for 28% of the combined external debt stock and 49% of their GDP.
DSSI has been extended to cover debt service due in the first half of 2021, with consideration for further extension.
Bond issuance by LMICs in 2020 was dominated by China, but other countries also saw activity, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Sub-Saharan Africa faced market closures and investor hesitation in 2020, but conditions improved by the end of the year, allowing Côte d'Ivoire and Benin to issue sovereign bonds.
The World Bank is working on a comprehensive dataset for domestic debt, with the aim of enhancing data coverage, harmonization, and transparency.

Conclusion

The DEBT Report 2021 Edition II underscores the complexity of debt dynamics in LMICs, especially under the impact of the pandemic. It highlights China’s dominance in both debt accumulation and bond issuance, while other regions experienced contractions or stagnation. The DSSI has provided significant relief, but participation remains uneven. The new initiative to compile domestic debt data is a critical step toward improving global debt monitoring and enhancing policy coherence.