2024-04-22-世界银行-_中东和北非经济更新_2024年4月_中东和北非的冲突与债务（英）_68页_2mb

Middle East and North Africa Economic Update: April 2024

Conflict and Debt Analysis

Regional Economic Synthesis

• The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces widespread economic challenges amid ongoing conflicts. The Gaza Strip's economy has seen an 86% decline in GDP during the fourth quarter of 2023, reflecting devastation from “The Israel-Hamas War,” with over 1.7 million Palestinians displaced and acute food insecurity widespread.
• Projections indicate that the conflict’s evolution remains highly uncertain, potentially widening economic vulnerabilities across the region. Global economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2024, while MENA's economic outlook is drab, with growth projected at 2.7 percent, lower than other EMDEs but aligning with pre-pandemic levels.

Key Findings: Economies and Debt

• Economic Performance:
  • Tourism—a major source of revenue in MENA—has significantly slowed. Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon face risks from reduced visitor arrivals due to global uncertainty and the conflict.
  • Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have increased costs and affected supply chains, particularly for trade-dependent nations.
• Debt Dynamics:
  • MENA oil-importing countries have higher debt-to-GDP ratios (three times that of oil exporters) than comparable global EMDEs. For instance, Egypt's ratio reached ~95% in 2023.
  • Growth or inflation has not effectively reduced debts due to extrabudgetary spending and currency fluctuations. Debt dependency remains high, with limited prospects for growth-out or inflation-away solutions.
  • Emerging oil-exporters like Iraq rely on volatile oil prices to stabilize finances, highlighting historical reliance on resource-based revenues.

Conflict Impacts

• The war in Gaza has caused unprecedented destruction: nearly 80% of health facilities are damaged; transportation networks are severely impaired, hindering reconstruction and aid delivery.
• Across the MENA region, the conflict risks further deteriorating tourism, trade, and supply chains, increasing risks of recession in neighboring economies like Jordan and Egypt.

Policy Recommendations

• Address debt transparency by incorporating stock-flow adjustments (SFAs) and extrabudgetary spending into fiscal data.
• Prioritize fiscal discipline and diversification to reduce reliance on volatile resource revenues.
• Strengthen social safety nets in conflict-affected areas to mitigate poverty and humanitarian crises.
• Enhance data reliability and statistical capacity to better monitor debt and economic conditions in fragile economies.

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This summary highlights the key economic and policy implications, focusing on regional disruptions, debt sustainability woes, and actionable recommendations.