世界银行-中东和北非经济监测，2017年10月：中东和北非难民危机，迎接发展挑战（英文）-2017.10-90页-12mb

Summary of the World Bank MENA Economic Monitor: Refugee Crisis in MENA - Meeting the Development Challenge

Core Content

The World Bank's MENA Economic Monitor: Refugee Crisis in MENA - Meeting the Development Challenge (October 2017) analyzes the economic impact of the refugee crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and outlines development challenges and policy responses.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• The global economy is projected to grow at 2.9% over the next two years, up from 2.4% in 2016.
• Growth is driven by strong domestic demand, improved industrial production, and increased exports in most countries.
• Advanced economies like the US, Euro Area, and Japan are leading the recovery.
• Commodity-exporting developing countries are also experiencing growth due to rising prices and increased production.

Oil Market Developments

• Oil prices have remained in the $48 to $55 per barrel range since mid-2016 due to market imbalances.
• US shale oil production has offset some of the impact of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts.
• OPEC compliance with production cuts is estimated at 75%, but some members like Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria are not fully compliant.
• The IEA predicts that oil price stagnation will continue into 2020.
• Low oil prices and continued production cuts are expected to delay market rebalancing.

MENA Economic Outlook

• The region's economic activity has started to recover since mid-2016, but growth is expected to moderate in 2017 due to slow oil production in exporters.
• Growth is projected to exceed 3% in 2018 and 2019, driven by global growth, increased trade, and commodity market stability.
• Overall growth levels in MENA are still half of what they were before the 2011 Arab Spring.
• The GCC region is expected to grow at 2.7% in 2019, below pre-2014 levels.
• Saudi Arabia is projected to grow at 0.3% in 2017, rising to 2% in 2019, due to low oil prices and reduced output.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio in GCC countries is expected to rise significantly, with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia recording the largest increases.

Development Challenges

• The refugee crisis presents significant development challenges, particularly in the areas of education, health, employment, and livelihoods.
• The influx of refugees has strained public finances in host countries, especially Lebanon and Jordan, which are the largest hosts per capita.

Policy Responses

Four Interlinked Crises

1. Education:

   • Refugees face challenges in accessing quality education.
   • Enrollment trends in Lebanon show a decline, highlighting the need for better educational integration and support.

2. Health:

   • The health of refugees is a major concern, especially in conflict-affected areas.
   • The need for improved healthcare access and support for refugee populations is emphasized.

3. Jobs:

   • Job creation is critical for integrating refugees into the labor market.
   • Policies should focus on promoting employment opportunities and supporting the private sector.

4. Livelihoods:

   • Supporting livelihoods through local integration and income-generating activities is essential.
   • The report highlights the importance of creating sustainable employment and improving access to social protection.

Recommendations for the Development Community

• Interventions and Assistance:

  • Enhance the effectiveness of aid and support for refugees.
  • Improve coordination between international organizations and local governments.

• Resources:

  • Increase funding and investment in refugee-related programs.
  • Leverage international financing mechanisms like the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF).

• Burden-Sharing:

  • Encourage equitable sharing of the burden among host countries.
  • Promote regional cooperation to address the refugee crisis collectively.

• Data and Monitoring:

  • Strengthen data collection and monitoring to better understand the needs of refugees and the impact of policies.
  • Use data to inform more targeted and effective interventions.

Key Information

• The refugee crisis in the MENA region is a significant development challenge.
• The region's economic performance has been below potential for at least 40 years, with high volatility in growth.
• Youth unemployment in the region is at 30%, with even higher rates for women.
• The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to increase potential output and diversify economies away from oil.
• The GCC region is expected to grow at 2.7% in 2019, but faces challenges such as low oil prices, geopolitical risks, and rising debt levels.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to addressing the refugee crisis in the MENA region. It highlights the importance of long-term economic reforms, better data collection, and international cooperation to meet the development challenges posed by the refugee influx.