2007年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_3页_220kb

ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (Box 9)

Core Content

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, based on information available up to 24 August 2007, provide estimates for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). These projections are part of a broader set of Eurosystem staff projections and are designed to reflect uncertainty in the economic outlook, using ranges based on historical deviations.

Main Projections

• Real GDP Growth:

  • 2007: Projected to grow between 2.2% and 2.8% annually.
  • 2008: Projected to grow between 1.8% and 2.8% annually.
  • The growth is expected to be supported by continued export expansion, rising profits, and favorable labor market trends.

• HICP (Inflation):

  • 2007: Projected to increase between 1.9% and 2.1% annually.
  • 2008: Projected to increase between 1.5% and 2.5% annually.
  • The decline in energy and non-oil commodity price contributions, along with a zero impact from indirect taxes in 2008, is expected to moderate inflationary pressures.

Technical Assumptions

• Interest Rates:

  • The three-month EURIBOR is expected to average 4.3% in 2007 and 4.5% in 2008, based on forward rates as of 14 August 2007.
  • Euro area ten-year nominal government bond yields are assumed to remain flat at 4.5%.

• Oil and Commodity Prices:

  • Annual average oil prices are projected to be USD 68.1 per barrel in 2007 and USD 71.9 per barrel in 2008.
  • Non-energy commodity prices are expected to rise by 20.0% in 2007 and 5.7% in 2008.

• Exchange Rates:

  • The EUR/USD exchange rate is assumed to remain at 1.37.
  • The effective exchange rate of the euro is projected to be 3.1% higher in 2007 than in 2006, and 0.5% higher in 2008 than in 2007.

• Fiscal Policies:

  • Based on national budget plans already approved or likely to be approved, including all relevant policy measures.

International Environment

• Global Growth:

  • World real GDP growth outside the euro area is projected to average 5.6% in 2007 and 5.3% in 2008.
  • Growth in the euro area's external export markets is expected to be 5.5% in 2007 and 6.9% in 2008.

• Major Economies:

  • The US and Japan are expected to see lower real GDP growth compared to recent years.
  • Emerging Asia is projected to maintain growth well above the global average.
  • Most other large economies are expected to grow dynamically.

Comparison with June 2007 Projections

• Real GDP:

  • The range for 2007 real GDP growth has been slightly adjusted downwards to 2.2-2.8%, reflecting higher oil prices and tighter financing conditions.
  • The range for 2008 real GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.8-2.8%.

• HICP:

  • The range for 2007 HICP growth is 1.9-2.1%, which is within the June 2007 range of 1.8-2.2%.
  • The range for 2008 HICP growth is 1.5-2.5%, also within the June 2007 range of 1.4-2.6%.

Key Notes

• The projections are based on working-day-adjusted data for real GDP and include intra-euro area trade for exports and imports.
• Slovenia is included in the 2006 data, while Cyprus and Malta are included in the 2008 projections for the first time.
• The weights of Cyprus, Malta, and Slovenia in euro area GDP are approximately 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively.

Summary of Projections (Table A)

Summary of Comparison with June 2007 Projections (Table B)