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Summary of "Constructing a Ranking of Critical Materials for the Global Energy Transition"

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) presents a comprehensive methodology to identify and rank critical materials for the global energy transition, particularly focusing on renewable energy technologies. It addresses the limitations of existing critical materials lists, which often include materials not relevant to renewable energy and are not consistently updated or globally representative. The report proposes a two-pronged approach: a meta-list of materials based on their frequency of appearance in existing lists, and a composite index that incorporates six indicators to provide a forward-looking ranking.

Main Viewpoints

1. Need for a Global Renewable Energy-Focused Ranking

   • Many current critical materials lists are not focused on renewable energy and include materials for fossil fuels, military, and medical applications.
   • A global ranking is essential to guide policy, investment, and supply chain strategies for the energy transition.

2. Methodology Overview

   • The meta-list is constructed from 35 existing lists, covering the period 2010–2023.
   • The composite index is developed using six indicators:
     • Trends in the listing of critical materials
     • Demand scenarios for materials
     • Market diversification
     • Abundance of minerals in the Earth's crust
     • Recycling potential
     • Substitution potential
   • The combination of the meta-list and composite index aims to balance retrospective and forward-looking perspectives.

3. Global Ranking of Critical Materials

   • The ranking is divided into three categories:
     • Most Critical: Lithium, cobalt, gallium, rare earth elements (REEs), neodymium, indium, platinum group metals (PGMs), dysprosium, nickel, tellurium, praseodymium, graphite, manganese, copper, and germanium.
     • Moderately Critical: Silver, strontium, platinum, phosphorus, chromium, rhodium, lanthanum, ruthenium, aluminium, boron/borate, selenium, palladium, cerium, vanadium, titanium, and silicon.
     • Least Critical: Molybdenum, magnesium, yttrium, cadmium, terbium, zinc, iridium, zirconium, samarium, tungsten, beryllium, tin, iron/steel, europium, potassium, niobium, tantalum, gadolinium, lead, and rhenium.

4. Key Challenges and Risks

   • Existing lists are often outdated due to time lags in research and publication.
   • Geopolitical, regulatory, and technological changes can significantly impact the supply and demand of critical materials.
   • A narrow focus on scarcity may overlook other constraints, opportunities, and technological developments.
   • Over-reliance on current technologies can lead to an inaccurate assessment of future criticality.

5. Policy Recommendations

   • Definitions and lists of critical materials should be used with caution due to their subjective nature.
   • Rankings should be updated every two to three years to reflect technological and policy changes.
   • Future scenarios should be incorporated to improve the forward-looking aspect of the ranking.
   • Governments should avoid micromanaging supply chains to prevent unintended consequences from over-regulation.

Key Information

• Scope: The report focuses on materials critical for renewable energy technologies and related infrastructure, excluding non-renewable energy and other decarbonisation strategies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power.
• Data Sources: Lists from academic publications, government documents, and international reports (see Appendix A, Table A.1).
• Indicators Used in the Composite Index:
  • Critical materials list trends: Measured by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of appearances in lists.
  • Demand scenarios: Based on forecasts for 2050 using exponential trend lines.
  • Diversification: Assessed via the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of global production.
  • Abundance: Estimated from Earth's crust data.
  • Recycling potential: Evaluated based on current technological feasibility.
  • Substitution potential: Measured by the ease with which a material can be replaced.
• Methodological Limitations:
  • The meta-list is retrospective due to the time lag in list creation.
  • Some materials may become less critical as technologies evolve, such as the potential shift from lithium-ion batteries to sodium-ion batteries (SIB) or perovskite solar panels.
  • National lists often conflate renewable and non-renewable materials, making them less useful for the energy transition.

Structure of the Report

• Executive Summary: Provides an overview of the methodology and results.
• Chapter 1: Introduces the scope and design of the analysis.
• Chapter 2: Describes the compilation of the meta-list of critical materials.
• Chapter 3: Details the composite index and its six indicators.
• Chapter 4: Presents the global ranking of critical materials.
• Chapter 5: Summarises conclusions and provides policy recommendations.
• Appendices:
  • Appendix A: Additional materials for the renewable energy meta-list.
  • Appendix B: Additional materials for the composite index, including demand projections and CAGR data.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of a dynamic, forward-looking approach to identifying critical materials for the global energy transition. It highlights the need for continuous updates to rankings and the inclusion of future technological developments to ensure accuracy and relevance. The findings aim to support policymakers and stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding the sustainable and secure supply of critical materials for renewable energy.