2024能源转型所需矿产资源保障策略白皮书-通过政策投资和创新释放价值链潜力英文版-WEF麦肯锡_21页_2mb

Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition: Unlocking the Value Chain through Policy, Investment and Innovation
This white paper addresses the critical need for collaboration and innovation to ensure the supply of key minerals meets the rising demands of clean energy technologies. The energy transition requires a parallel development of the materials supply chain, as minerals like copper, lithium, and rare earths are essential for electric vehicles and solar panels. Despite recent progress in mining investments, supply shortages for certain minerals are anticipated, risking delays in the transition and negative social/environmental impacts.

Key Challenges

1. Financial Barriers: High and uncertain capital expenditures, limited profitability for scaling innovations, and risks of early-stage investments. For example, long lead times for mine development and volatile commodity prices deter investment.
2. Enabling Environment Barriers: Lengthy permitting timelines, fragmented policies, community resistance due to environmental/social concerns, and lack of infrastructure. Regulatory duplication and inconsistent ESG standards also create hurdles.
3. Cross-Cutting Barriers: Insufficient ESG standardization, inadequate data transparency, and risks from evolving trade dynamics. The absence of reliable data on mineral flows complicates investment decisions.
4. Commercial Risks: Challenges in scaling new technologies, such as technological uncertainty and slow adoption in the mining sector.

Solutions and Unlocks

Policy and Investment Measures:

• Financial support through tax credits, grants, and low-cost loans (e.g., US DOE’s $800 million for recycling, IFC’s mine project funding).
• Streamlining permitting processes and creating harmonized ESG standards across jurisdictions.
• Governments prioritizing clean energy procurement (e.g., US aiming for 100% ZEV sales by 2035) to signal demand.

Innovation-Driven Strategies:

• Increasing primary supply through new mine development and sustainable practices (e.g., renewable energy-powered operations).
• Boosting secondary supply via recycling innovations, supported by R&D funding and industry collaboration.
• Reducing demand through substitution and improved efficiency (e.g., using alternative materials or technologies).

Stakeholder Collaboration:

• Public-private partnerships to de-risk investments and share expertise (e.g., EU’s CRMA, IFC’s infrastructure projects).
• International cooperation to diversify supply chains and share knowledge (e.g., Minerals Security Partnership, joint ventures in DRC and Angola).
• Establishing shared infrastructure and data transparency initiatives to lower costs and improve sustainability.

Next Steps

• Governments and organizations must align policies, improve data sharing, and invest in ESG initiatives.
• Companies should engage in cross-sector partnerships, leverage public sector support (e.g., innovation accelerators), and prioritize workforce development.
• Financial actors need to design instruments that reduce risks for critical minerals projects, especially in emerging markets.

The paper emphasizes that a coordinated, multi-stakeholder approach is essential to achieve a just and orderly energy transition, ensuring minerals are available, affordable, and sustainably sourced. Key actions include fostering innovation, improving regulatory frameworks, and strengthening global collaboration to address supply-demand gaps.