2025-06-12-花旗集团-BeOne_Medicines（ONC）_BeOne_Medicines_（ONC.O）_欧洲血液学协会（EHA）更新信息持续推动慢性淋巴细胞白血病（CLL）业务发展势头超越百悦泽；重申买入_12页_399kb

BeOne Medicines (ONC.O) CLL Pipeline Summary

Key Recommendations

• Buy Rating: Citi Research maintains a "Buy" recommendation for BeOne Medicines, citing continued momentum in CLL franchise post-EHA 2025 updates.
• Short-Term Upside: Expect stock appreciation within 90 days due to positive data from EHA, highlighting durability and superiority of investigational drugs.
• Target Price & Returns: 12-month target price at US$341, based on 23.3% expected total return, driven by discounted cash flow analysis.

Recent EHA 2025 Updates

• Sonro (BCL2 Inhibitor) + Zanu Combo: Phase 3 CELESTIAL-TNCLL trial completed enrollment (320 mg sonro + zanubrutinib fixed-duration vs. venetoclax + CD20 fixed-duration). Data shows only 1 PFS event in 22 patients, with 80% unconfirmed MRD4, supporting therapy cessation due to minimal relapse risk.
• BTK-Degrader: In-progress Phase 3 trials in relapsed CLL; updated mPFS of ~22–23 months (exceeds pirto's mPFS of 14.0 months) supports superiority profile over competitor.

Pipeline Progress

• Triad of CLL Medicines: Includes approved Brukinsa (monotherapy), sonro (fixed-duration combos), and BTK-degrader (targeting various lines: 1L, 2L, 3L+).
• Active Phase 3 Trials:
  • CELESTIAL-RRCLL (sonro + CD20 vs. venetoclax + CD20): Initiated to confirm sonro PFS superiority.
  • R/R CLL trial (BTK-degrader vs. physician's choice): Ongoing.
  • Strategic Phase 3 head-to-head trial vs. LLY’s pirto in post-cBTKi R/R CLL: Expected to start 2H25.

Valuation Highlights

• Weighted average cost of capital (WACC): 9%
• Terminal growth rate: 2.5%
• Expected share price return: 23.3% within 12 months.

Risks

• Clinical/Tech: Pipeline drugs may fail to meet expectations in generating returns on R&D investment.
• Commercial: Sales of Brukinsa and Tevimbra could lag due to competitive pressures, pricing, policies.
• General: Typical large-cap biotech risks; ONC may underperform if growth catalysts are insufficient.