20231025-东吴证券-固收点评_特别国债发行后_债券市场将如何演绎__4页_416kb

报告摘要

Summary of East Wind Securities Fixed Income Research Report on Special Government Bond Issuance

Event Overview

On October 24, 2023, the 14th session of the National People's Congress authorized central fiscal authorities to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of special bonds in the fourth quarter to support infrastructure and economic stimulus. This follows existing special re-finance bond issuances.

Key Findings and Statements

Fourth Quarter Bond Supply: Expected to reach approximately 72 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 43 trillion yuan in 2020, 48 in 2021, and 55 in 2022. Detailed breakdown:
- Government bonds: 37 trillion yuan (11 billion yuan October, 14.4 trillion yuan November, 15.6 trillion yuan December).
- New regular bonds and special bonds: Approximately 750 billion yuan and 4 trillion yuan respectively, expected to be relatively low in the fourth quarter based on historical patterns.
- Refinance bonds: Up to 13 trillion yuan in 2023, with planned issuances of 1 trillion yuan in October, 500 billion in November, and 500 billion in December.
- Policy financial bonds: Approximately 800 billion yuan, spread across months.
Liquidity Impact: Increased bond issuance will absorb liquidity by raising fiscal deposits, potentially causing temporary market tightness. Fiscal deposit patterns show that November typically helps ease liquidity, but current high supply may overwhelm this effect. Expected measures include adjustments to treasury repo operations and possible reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts.
Market Reaction: Short-term bond yields may fluctuate due to supply-demand imbalances, but long-term trends are expected to be stable around low levels. A key factor is the effectiveness of fiscal policies in stimulating economic growth.
Risk Assessment: Potential risks include unforeseen changes in macroeconomic conditions, policy shifts, and measurement errors based on historical data. The report recommends monitoring economic fundamentals and policy coordination.

Recommendations and Outlook

Short-term focus: Expect liquidity management interventions and possible 25 basis points RRR cuts in November.
Long-term outlook: Interest rates are likely to maintain a low and stable range, with market volatility driven by fiscal stimulus effectiveness.
Annual comparisons: Total interest bond issuance has been rising over the years, with a peak in early 2022.