20150624-DBS_Group-China_Property_Weekly_Digest_18页_715kb

China Property Weekly Digest Summary (Issue No. 130)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese property market performance for the week of June 15–21, 2015, focusing on sales trends, inventory levels, and share price movements across different tiers of cities and major property companies.

Key Metrics and Trends

Sales Performance

• New Units Launched:

  • 8.3k units were launched in Tier I/II/III cities, up 11% week-over-week (vs a weekly average of 6.5k in the first 25 weeks of 2015).
  • Sell-through Rate: Increased to 63% week-over-week from 52% previously.

• GFA Sold:

  • Tier I cities: Increased by 0% week-over-week, with a 1.3% month-over-month increase in the first three weeks of June, but 0.8% lower than May's average.
  • Tier II cities: GFA sold decreased by 7% week-over-week, with a 50% year-over-year increase.
  • Tier III cities: GFA sold decreased by 5% week-over-week, with an 87% year-over-year increase.

• ASP (Average Selling Price):

  • Tier I cities: Decreased by 3% week-over-week, with a 17% year-over-year increase.
  • Tier II cities: Decreased by 15% year-over-year, with a 3% week-over-week increase.
  • Tier III cities: Decreased by 5% year-over-year, with a 1% week-over-week increase.

• YTD Sales:

  • Sales volume in the first 25 weeks was 17% higher year-over-year.
  • ASP was 7.3% lower than in 2014.

• Inventory Level:

  • Inventory level remained stable at 69 weeks, down from 77 weeks in 2014.
  • Rolling 26 weeks inventory for 16 cities showed a stable trend.

Share Price Performance

• HSI: 27,405.
• YTD Share Price Performance:
  • A chart is included showing the performance, indicating a decline compared to previous years.
• Trading Volume:
  • Daily trading volume for the week of June 15–19 showed a stable trend.
  • Average weekly trading volume was consistent with previous periods.

New Projects Launched

• 48 projects were launched in Major Tier I&II cities.
• Hangzhou: 13 projects were launched.
• Sell-through Rate: Increased to 63% week-over-week.

Tier I Cities Analysis

• GFA Sales:

  • Beijing: 273,000 sm, up 36% week-over-week, 113% year-over-year.
  • Shanghai: 384,000 sm, down 10% week-over-week, up 24% year-over-year.
  • Shenzhen: 148,000 sm, down 17% week-over-week, up 149% year-over-year.
  • Guangzhou: 254,000 sm, down 2% week-over-week, up 54% year-over-year.
  • Tier I Average: 265,000 sm, stable week-over-week, up 85% year-over-year.

• ASP:

  • Beijing: 24,151 RMB/sm, down 17% week-over-week, down 13% year-over-year.
  • Shanghai: 23,837 RMB/sm, down 2% week-over-week, up 38% year-over-year.
  • Shenzhen: 31,076 RMB/sm, up 2% week-over-week, up 44% year-over-year.
  • Guangzhou: 15,307 RMB/sm, up 4% week-over-week, down 2% year-over-year.
  • Tier I Average: 23,593 RMB/sm, down 3% week-over-week, up 17% year-over-year.

Tier II Cities Analysis

• GFA Sales:

  • Hangzhou: 121,000 sm, down 3% week-over-week, up 164% year-over-year.
  • Suzhou: 186,000 sm, down 29% week-over-week, up 43% year-over-year.
  • Xiamen: 69,000 sm, down 10% week-over-week, up 45% year-over-year.
  • Wuhan: 480,000 sm, down 2% week-over-week, up 33% year-over-year.
  • Chengdu: 192,000 sm, up 3% week-over-week, up 43% year-over-year.
  • Tier II Average: 169,000 sm, down 7% week-over-week, up 50% year-over-year.

• ASP:

  • Hangzhou: 15,307 RMB/sm, down 17% week-over-week, down 7% year-over-year.
  • Suzhou: 15,307 RMB/sm, down 21% week-over-week, down 19% year-over-year.
  • Xiamen: 15,307 RMB/sm, down 21% week-over-week, down 12% year-over-year.
  • Wuhan: 15,307 RMB/sm, up 4% week-over-week, up 18% year-over-year.
  • Tier II Average: 9,770 RMB/sm, up 3% week-over-week, down 15% year-over-year.

Tier III Cities Analysis

• GFA Sales:

  • Dongguan: 211,000 sm, down 4% week-over-week, up 244% year-over-year.
  • Weifang: 81,000 sm, down 9% week-over-week, not available year-over-year.
  • Baotou: 47,000 sm, down 27% week-over-week, not available year-over-year.
  • Guilin: 18,000 sm, down 5% week-over-week, down 20% year-over-year.
  • Xuzhou: 250,000 sm, up 20% week-over-week, up 80% year-over-year.
  • Tier III Average: 72,000 sm, down 5% week-over-week, up 87% year-over-year.

• ASP:

  • Dongguan: 9,748 RMB/sm, up 3% week-over-week, up 7% year-over-year.
  • Weifang: 4,219 RMB/sm, up 0% week-over-week, not available year-over-year.
  • Baotou: 5,104 RMB/sm, down 1% week-over-week, not available year-over-year.
  • Tier III Average: 5,792 RMB/sm, down 1% week-over-week, down 5% year-over-year.

Inventory Level

• Inventory Weeks:
  • 69 weeks for the entire market, down from 77 weeks in 2014.
• Trend:
  • A chart shows the trend of inventory weeks over the rolling 26 weeks, indicating a stable trend.

Peer Valuations and Share Price Performance

• Valuation Comparison:

  • A table compares key financial metrics of major property companies, including market cap, trading volume, price targets, EPS growth, and various P/E and P/B ratios.

  • Large Cap:

    • China Overseas: Buy recommendation, 38.96% 12-m growth, 7% EPS growth, 8.4 P/E 15F, 17.2 Yield.
    • Country Garden: Buy recommendation, 5.25% 12-m growth, 3% EPS growth, 6.1 P/E 15F, 16.1 Yield.
    • CR Land: Buy recommendation, 31.30% 12-m growth, 11% EPS growth, 9.3 P/E 15F, 10.7 Yield.
    • Evergrande: Hold recommendation, 3.81% 12-m growth, 14% EPS growth, 6.9 P/E 15F, 6.9 Yield.
    • Shimao Property: Buy recommendation, 25.16% 12-m growth, 9% EPS growth, 5.5 P/E 15F, 15.0 Yield.
    • China Vanke: Buy recommendation, 23.69% 12-m growth, 11% EPS growth, 9.3 P/E 15F, 17.6 Yield.
    • Sino-Ocean Land: Buy recommendation, 7.06% 12-m growth, 28% EPS growth, 4.1 P/E 15F, 8.4 Yield.
    • Yuexiu Property: Hold recommendation, 1.67% 12-m growth, 18% EPS growth, 4.2 P/E 15F, 10.8 Yield.

  • Mid Cap:

    • Agile Property: Hold recommendation, 5.87% 12-m growth, 13% EPS growth, 5.1 P/E 15F, 7.9 Yield.
    • COGO: Buy recommendation, 6.53% 12-m growth, 29% EPS growth, 3.1 P/E 15F, 17.5 Yield.
    • Dalian Wanda: NR recommendation, 12.1% EPS growth, 9.6 P/E 15F, 12.2 Yield.
    • Franshion: Buy recommendation, 3.80% 12-m growth, 8% EPS growth, 3.9 P/E 15F, 9.8 Yield.
    • Guangzhou R&F: NR recommendation, 10.1% EPS growth, 5.3 P/E 15F, 16.0 Yield.
    • KWG Property: NR recommendation, 12.0% EPS growth, 4.2 P/E 15F, 14.6 Yield.
    • Poly (Hong Kong): NR recommendation, 11.9% EPS growth, 5.9 P/E 15F, 16.2 Yield.
    • Shui On Land: Hold recommendation, 1.97% 12-m growth, 18% EPS growth, 5.6 P/E 15F, 1.5 Yield.
    • Soho China: Hold recommendation, 5.39% 12-m growth, 30% EPS growth, 5.6 P/E 15F, 1.3 Yield.
    • Sunac China: NR recommendation, 11.7% EPS growth, 8.1 P/E 15F, 4.6 Yield.
    • Yanlord Land: Buy recommendation, 1.49% 12-m growth, 44% EPS growth, 1.2 P/E 15F, 4.6 Yield.
    • Yuexiu Property: Hold recommendation, 1.67% 12-m growth, 18% EPS growth, 4.2 P/E 15F, 10.8 Yield.

  • Small Cap:

    • BJ Cap Land: NR recommendation, 1.57% 12-m growth, 13% EPS growth, 1.3 P/E 15F, 5.9 Yield.
    • BJ North Star: NR recommendation, 2.28% 12-m growth, 14% EPS growth, 2.5 P/E 15F, 4.3 Yield.
    • C C Land: Hold recommendation, 2.28% 12-m growth, 4% EPS growth, 2.5 P/E 15F, 4.0 Yield.
    • Central China: Buy recommendation, 3.02% 12-m growth, 28% EPS growth, 5.8 P/E 15F, 13.8 Yield.
    • China SCE: NR recommendation, 1.85% 12-m growth, 5.1% EPS growth, 3.9 P/E 15F, 14.8 Yield.
    • CIFI Holdings: NR recommendation, 2.1% 12-m growth, 4.4% EPS growth, 3.6 P/E 15F, 20.7 Yield.
    • First Sponsor: Buy recommendation, 1.57% 12-m growth, 13% EPS growth, 12.4 P/E 15F, 14.0 Yield.
    • Glorious Property: NR recommendation, 1.1% 12-m growth, 8.6% EPS growth, 0.0 P/E 15F, 1.2 Yield.
    • Kaisa Group: NR recommendation, 1.56% 12-m growth, 2.2% EPS growth, 1.8 P/E 15F, 16.5 Yield.
    • Lai Fung: NR recommendation, 0.181% 12-m growth, 50% EPS growth, 8.5 P/E 15F, 12.8 Yield.
    • Minmetals Land: NR recommendation, 1.07% 12-m growth, 1.2% EPS growth, 1.4 P/E 15F, 1.2 Yield.
    • Powerlong: NR recommendation, 1.83% 12-m growth, 5% EPS growth, 4.5 P/E 15F, 5.3 Yield.
    • Renhe Commercial: NR recommendation, 0.76% 12-m growth, 13.6% EPS growth, 0.0 P/E 15F, 1.2 Yield.

Summary of Key Points

• Sales Growth:
  • Overall sales volume showed a 17% year-over-year increase in the first 25 weeks of 2015.
  • Sell-through rate increased to 63% week-over-week.
• Inventory Levels:
  • Inventory levels were stable at 69 weeks, lower than 2014's average of 77 weeks.
• Price Trends:
  • Share price performance varied across different cities and companies, with some showing positive growth and others indicating a decline.
• Valuations:
  • Peer valuations and financial metrics provided insights into market expectations and performance trends for major property firms.

Conclusion

The report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese property market, with growth in sales volume and inventory turnover, but varying trends in average selling prices and stock valuations. It underscores the importance of regional and company-specific analysis in understanding the market dynamics.