20150616-DBS_Group-Sales_in_2W-June_was_higher_mom_18页_632kb

报告摘要

China Property Weekly Digest Summary (Issue No. 129)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the property market performance in China, focusing on sales, new project launches, and inventory levels across Tier I, II, and III cities as of June 16, 2015. It also includes share price performance and peer valuations for major property developers.

Key Market Performance

Weekly Sales Performance (Jun 8 – Jun 14)

Total GFA Sold: Increased by 14.3% week-over-week (w-o-w), with a 16.1% year-to-date (YTD) increase compared to 2014.
ASP (Average Selling Price): Increased by 0.5% w-o-w, but decreased by 7.2% YTD compared to 2014.
Inventory Level: Remained stable at 69 weeks, lower than the 2014 average of 77 weeks.

New Projects Launched (Jun 8 – Jun 14)

Total New Units Launched: 7,500 units in Tier I and II cities.
Sell-through Rate: Dropped to 52% w-o-w, compared to 64% last week.
New Projects: 43 projects launched in Tier I and II cities, with 9 in Hangzhou and Wuhan.

Weekly Sales by Tier

Tier I Cities

Average GFA Sold: 266,000 sm, up 6% w-o-w and 101% YTD vs 2014.
Average ASP: 24,659 Rmb/sm, up 4% w-o-w and 17% YTD vs 2014.
Performance by City:
- Beijing: GFA up 47% w-o-w, ASP up 7%.
- Shanghai: GFA down 2% w-o-w, ASP up 8%.
- Shenzhen: GFA down 6% w-o-w, ASP up 4%.
- Guangzhou: GFA up 8% w-o-w, ASP up -2%.

Tier II Cities

Average GFA Sold: 180,000 sm, up 3% w-o-w and 56% YTD vs 2014.
Average ASP: 9,544 Rmb/sm, down 1% w-o-w and 11% YTD vs 2014.
Performance by City:
- Tianjin: GFA up 5% w-o-w, ASP up 3%.
- Hangzhou: GFA up 25% w-o-w, ASP up 25%.
- Wuhan: GFA up 3% w-o-w, ASP up 3%.
- Chongqing: GFA down 6% w-o-w, ASP up 0%.
- Nanjing: GFA down 25% w-o-w, ASP down -25%.
- Fuzhou: GFA up 179% w-o-w, ASP up 179%.
- Shenyang: GFA up 1% w-o-w, ASP up 5%.
- Sanya: GFA down 5% w-o-w, ASP down -14%.

Tier III Cities

Average GFA Sold: 78,000 sm, up 23% w-o-w and 92% YTD vs 2014.
Average ASP: 5,869 Rmb/sm, down 2% w-o-w and -2% YTD vs 2014.
Performance by City:
- Dongguan: GFA up 30% w-o-w, ASP up 2%.
- Weifang: GFA up 91% w-o-w, ASP up 0%.
- Shantou: GFA up -4% w-o-w, ASP up -1%.
- Jiujiang: GFA up 9% w-o-w, ASP up 9%.
- Zhaoqing: GFA up 25% w-o-w, ASP up -1%.

Inventory Level

Inventory (Weeks of Sales): Remained at 69 weeks, consistent with the previous week.
Rolling 26 Weeks Inventory: Stable at 69 weeks, still below the 2014 average of 77 weeks.
Trend: Inventory levels have shown a gradual decline over the past few months.

Share Price Performance and Peer Valuations

YTD Share Price Performance

The report includes a chart showing the year-to-date share price performance of major property developers.

Peer Valuation Comparison (June 16)

Company Name	Code	Price (HK$)	3-mth Daily Trading Value (US$m)	12-m Recom Target (HK$)	EPS Growth	PE (15F)	PE (16F)	PE Yield (14A)	Yield (14A)	ROE	Net	Disc/(Prem) to NAV
China Overseas	688 HK	28.1	277.1	Buy 38.96	(8)	9.0	8.4	2.0	2.3	17.2	15.5	31.7
Country Garden	2007 HK	3.38	76.3	Buy 5.25	(16)	5.9	5.7	5.0	5.5	16.1	14.8	54.2
CR Land	1109 HK	24.3	168.4	Buy 31.30	(30)	13.7	12.3	2.0	2.0	10.7	10.3	42.7
Evergrande	3333 HK	4.25	66.5	Hold 3.81	(42)	6.8	6.0	12.5	3.7	6.9	8.0	85.9
Longfor	960 HK	12.14	70.7	NR n.a.	(15)	17	15	7.5	6.6	21.7	11.3	57.1
Shimao Property	813 HK	15.92	55.3	Buy 25.16	(7)	9	8	5.2	5.1	28.5	44.2	58.6
China Vanke	2202 HK	19.24	212.4	NR n.a.	17	15	9.2	8.0	3.2	3.6	19.3	19.6
Agile Property	3383 HK	5.43	21.3	Hold 5.87	(27)	4.9	5.1	7.3	5.1	8.8	7.9	75.2
COGO	81 HK	4.02	9.2	Buy 6.53	86	3.9	3.0	1.2	1.2	17.5	18.8	70.4
Franshion	817 HK	2.87	26.0	Buy 3.80	(32)	7.7	7.1	4.0	3.9	9.8	10.1	58.1
Guangzhou R&F	2777 HK	9.19	29.6	NR n.a.	9	12	4.1	3.7	0.0	5.6	16.2	19.3
Hopson Dev	754 HK	7.86	17.6	NR n.a.	(61)	15.2	14.1	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	73.6
KWG Property	1813 HK	6.53	19.2	NR n.a.	(4)	4.9	4.1	6.3	6.9	14.6	15.7	66.8
Poly (Hong Kong)	119 HK	3.92	14.4	NR n.a.	54	10.0	8.4	1.9	2.8	5.2	5.9	103.9
Shenzhen Inv	604 HK	3.96	29.2	NR n.a.	(41)	12.6	11.6	4.0	3.9	7.6	7.8	73.9
Shui On Land	272 HK	2.23	17.9	Hold 1.97	(133)	28.9	41.4	5.8	5.8	1.9	1.3	19.3
Sino-Ocean Land	3377 HK	5.45	41.0	Buy 7.06	(21)	9.3	7.3	4.5	3.6	8.4	9.9	65.9
Soho China	410 HK	5.09	26.5	Hold 5.39	(82)	28.9	41.4	5.8	5.8	1.9	1.3	19.3
Sunac China	1918 HK	8.73	29.7	NR n.a.	31	5.6	4.7	2.7	3.3	22.6	22.2	44.5
Yanlord Land	YLLG SP	1.115	2.2	Buy 1.49	(29)	11.3	7.8	1.2	1.2	4.6	6.4	44.9
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	1.71	21.2	Hold 1.67	(36)	9.3	7.9	4.3	4.3	6.1	6.9	63.1

Summary of Trends

Sales Trends: Overall sales volume in Tier I and II cities increased week-over-week, with a strong YTD performance compared to 2014.
ASP Trends: ASPs generally declined, particularly in Tier I and Tier II cities, indicating potential price pressure.
Inventory Trends: Inventory levels remained stable, with a significant improvement compared to 2014.
Share Price Trends: Share prices varied, with some companies showing strong performance and others facing downward pressure.
Valuation Insights: Valuation metrics such as PE and EPS growth indicated mixed market sentiment, with some companies trading at premiums or discounts to NAV.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed performance across the Chinese property market, with increased sales volume but declining ASPs, stable inventory levels, and varied share price and valuation trends. Developers in Tier I cities showed resilience in sales, while those in Tier II and III cities had mixed results. The overall market sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic, with some companies receiving buy recommendations and others facing challenges.

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