2025-05-29-Jefferies-航运日报-关税裁决带来更多不确定性_但对市场情绪有帮助_12页_623kb

Equity Research: Shipping Daily - Tariff ruling brings more uncertainty but helpful to sentiment

Key Points & Summary

1. **** Tariff Rulings Impact Shipping Market:

   • U.S. court blocked the majority of President Trump's tariffs, creating more uncertainty but improving sentiment in the short term due to delays in implementation.
   • Expectations of further court hearings and potential adjustments by the administration mean the long-term outlook remains unclear.

2. **** Dry Bulk Market Improvements:

   • Dry bulk markets show positive momentum. Capesize spot rates are rising significantly, driven by reduced overcapacity.
   • Weekly offered capacity on the Transpacific route (measured in TEU) has declined to an average of 500,000 TEU, compared to 550,000 TEU in April and 565,000 TEU during Q1 2025.
   • Prices are rising for Kamsarmax, Supramax, Ultramax, and Ultramax+Scrubber vessel types.

3. **** Container Shipping Market Gains:

   • Rates in the Asia-U.S. markets are increasing, particularly for the West Coast and East Coast routes.
   • Asia-U.S. West Coast spot rates have reached $3,300/FEU, up from $3,200, with projections pointing to the SCFI index potentially increasing by double-digit percentage by the end of May.

4. **** Vessel Class Performance:

   • The VLGC (Very Large Gas Carrier) class shows top performance in commodity shipping, with spot rates exceeding $36,000/day (Eco/Scrubber).
   • LNG MEGI spot rates are strong, with averages around $55,000/day.

5. **** Market Sentiment:

   • While court rulings create uncertainty, the improvement is credited to the recent China-U.S. deal two weeks prior.
   • Markets (especially containers) are poised for further gains once clarity on tariffs is achieved.

📊 Analyst Insights
Jefferies researchers highlight that while tariffs have created uncertainty, the flexibility of investors—including potential adjustments by carriers and ongoing market capacity reductions—are expected to drive continued pricing advantages across several vessel segments.

📉 Risks & Uncertainties:

• Increased risk of further tariff or policy changes.
• Market volatility may affect shipowner profitability if rates prove unsustainable.
• Global political and regulatory shifts impacting international trade (including U.S./China relations).

Note: The tone reflects available market data as of mid-2025 and is sensitive to pending regulatory resolution.