2025-05-29-Jefferies-北欧美国航运公司（NAT）_第一季度业绩因收入下降未达预期_11页_167kb

NAT Equity Research Summary

Overview

• Jefferies maintains a Hold rating on Nordic American Tanker (NAT) with a $3 price target.
• The 1Q25 results missed expectations: Basic EPS was $0.02, but adjusted EPS (factoring a $9.5 million gain) was -$0.02, missing consensus by 100% ($0.01). Adjusted EBITDA of $14.9M missed the $21.2M consensus.
• Key factors driving the opinion:
  • Generous dividend payout policy prioritizing returns.
  • Decent balance sheet strengthened by recent refinancing and asset sales.
  • Fleet renewal: Delivery of two new ships ($66M each), offset by the sale of older vessels.
  • Concerns remain over fleet age (avg 12.3 years, one-third built pre-2010) impacting realized rates.

Financial Performance (Exclude Detailed Income Statement/Footnotes)

• 1Q25 Results: Realized TCE: $24,714/day (vs model $27,600), Net Revenue: $37.9M (vs modeled $45.1M), Adjusted EPS: -$0.02, Adjusted EBITDA: $14.9M.
• Dividend: Declared $0.07/sh, maintained despite earnings loss.
• Cash Position: $133M post-dividend/refinancing.
• Capital Structure: NAV: $718.88/share ($3.40).

Fleet

• 20 Suezmax tankers, 12.3 years average age.
• Two ships delivered (2016-built), two sold (2003/2004), maintaining fleet count.
• 5 ships >20 years old, prompting need for renewal.

Dividends

• Generous policy ("generous dividend") supporting high payout ratio despite low earnings.
• Prior focus on deleveraging shifted, but dividends remain the priority.

Valuation & Price Target

• Hold rating & $3 price target (previously held since Dec '24).
• Price target implies ~13% upside from current price ($2.65).
• Key metrics: FY25 P/E 23.7x, 2026 P/E 11.3x, EV/EBITDA 6.8x, Net Asset Value (NAV) $3.40.
• Future price targets based on base case, upside (surging rates), and downside (persistent low rates).

Key Concerns

• Achievement of higher spot rates needed for better results.
• Declining market values impacting leverage ratios and returns.
• Fleet age remains a significant concern for rate realization.

Analyst Certification

• Omar Nokta, Jaeyoung McGarry, Emily Harkins certify views reflect personal opinions, not influenced by compensation tied to recommendations.

Analyst Certification

• The Hold rating reflects expectation for returns between -10% and +15% (Total Return) over 12 months.