2025-05-29-Jefferies-阿加瓦尔博士医疗保健公司（AGARWALE）_阿加瓦尔博士公司第四季度业绩符合预期；高增长中的丰富估值因素；持有_12页_623kb

Dr Agarwal's Healthcare Summary

Core Content

Dr Agarwal's Healthcare reported its 4QFY25 results, which were largely in line with expectations. Key financial highlights include:

• Revenue: INR4.6bn (32% YoY, +3% QoQ)
• EBITDA: INR1.3bn (21% YoY, +14% QoQ)
• PAT: INR0.32bn (-16% YoY, +46% QoQ)

The EBITDA margin in 4QFY25 was 28.5%, a decline of 251bps YoY, attributed to increased marketing and brand ambassador costs.

For FY26, the company guided for 20% revenue growth, flattish margins, and 35%+ PAT growth, which were slightly below the analysts' expectations of 24% revenue growth and 44% PAT growth. This guidance reflects the company's focus on aggressive expansion with plans to add 55 new centers, including 15 primary care, 27 secondary, and 3 tertiary facilities, primarily in core geographies such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. Additionally, the company has launched its first greenfield facility in Delhi-NCR, led by Dr. Jeewan Titiyal, a renowned doctor from AIIMS.

The company's payor mix has shifted towards more cash patients, increasing from 60.7% in FY24 to 63.8% in FY25, driven by higher revenue from surgeries, which are typically not covered by insurance.

Key Financial Projections

The analysts have revised their FY26/27 EBITDA estimates down by 2–5% due to the lower guidance. The price target has been adjusted to INR380, which is 27x FY27 pre-Ind AS core EBITDA, compared to the earlier 30x (15% premium to Rainbow Hospitals).

Investment Thesis

• Leading eye care service chain with a comprehensive service offering.
• Asset-light expansion and a strong brand name are key to its success.
• Expected revenue and pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR of 18% over FY25–27E via organic and inorganic growth.

Risks and Considerations

• Execution risks in the expansion of new centers.
• Government price controls could impact margins.
• Punchy valuations leave little room for error, even with a strong growth outlook.
• The company is valued at 27x FY27 core EBITDA, which is fairly priced but requires consistent execution to justify.

Valuation Methodology

The analysts value the company using a 27x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is lower than the earlier 30x. The price target of INR380 is derived from this valuation, factoring in core EBITDA, minority interest adjustments, and debt levels.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: INR380 (up from INR351.65)
• Target Price Calculation: Based on 27x FY27 core EBITDA, the target EV is INR117,509, leading to a final price target of INR380.

Key Metrics

Catalysts

• New center roll-out in FY26.
• Operating leverage from new centers.
• Acquisitions to support growth.

Sustainability Matters

• Top Material Issue: Access and Affordability for different classes of people.
• Questions to Management:
  1. Plans to reduce waste water management.
  2. Proportion of energy consumption from renewable energy and plans to increase it.
• ESG Sector: India Pharma.

Analysts' Certifications and Disclosures

• Analysts Alok Dalal and Dhawal Khut are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain FINRA rules.
• Jefferies has received compensation from investment banking services from Dr Agarwal's Healthcare Ltd. in the past 12 months.

Summary of Key Points

• 4QFY25 results were in-line with estimates.
• FY26 guidance was slightly below expectations.
• Aggressive expansion is expected with 55 new centers.
• Payor mix is shifting towards cash patients.
• Valuation is based on 27x core EBITDA, with a price target of INR380.
• Risks include execution challenges and government price controls.
• Investment thesis emphasizes brand strength and growth through expansion.
• Analyst rating is Hold, with a price target adjusted due to lower guidance.