2025-06-09-Jefferies-亚萨合莱（ASSAB）_第二季度预览_在更多不确定性和外汇逆风下保持稳定_12页_280kb

Q2 Preview: Stable In Light Of More Uncertainty & FX Headwinds

Core Content Summary

This document provides a detailed analysis of Assa Abloy's financial outlook for Q2 and the upcoming fiscal years, with a focus on revenue growth, margin performance, and valuation metrics. It outlines the company's strategic position, market dynamics, and potential catalysts for future performance, while also addressing risks and sustainability efforts.

Main Points

Q2 Revenue Forecast

• Organic Revenue Growth: Estimated at +2.3%, assuming stable demand, slightly better pricing, and limited working day impact.
• FX Impact: Expected to be a -7% headwind on revenue.
• Adjusted EBIT Margin: Modelled at 15.8%, with 50bps M&A dilution and 40bps FX headwind.
• Regional Performance:
  • EMEIA: Organic revenue growth of +0.5%, with 30bps FX tailwind from SEK strength.
  • Americas: Organic revenue growth of +2%, with 50-70bps stronger margins despite double-digit FX impact.
  • Global Tech: Organic revenue growth of +7.7%, with 50-80bps stronger margins and minimal FX margin impact.
  • Entrance Systems: Organic revenue growth of +1%, with 60bps margin improvement and reduced SKIDATA dilution.
  • Asia Pacific: Organic revenue decline of -2%, due to China weakness and muted demand in South Korea, but 2.5-3% margin improvement is expected.

FY25 Revenue Forecast

• Group Revenue: Estimated at SEK153,396 million (FY2024: SEK150,160 million).
• Organic Growth: Projected at +2.7%, with +3.6% in FY26 and +4.6% in FY27.
• Adjusted EBIT: Expected to be SEK24,721 million in FY25, SEK26,563 million in FY26, and SEK28,647 million in FY27.
• Adjusted EBIT Margin:
  • FY25: 16.1%
  • FY26: 16.7%
  • FY27: 17.2%

Investment Thesis

• The company is expected to deliver better earnings performance due to its defensive business model.
• M&A activity is a key driver of growth, with potential for +5% inorganic revenue growth.
• Interest rate cuts and recovery in residential R&R spend are seen as positive catalysts.
• The stock is expected to re-rate due to its 20% YTD underperformance and low valuation relative to its historical range.

Price Targets & Scenarios

• Base Case: SEK375, with +3% organic growth in 2025 and +5% in 2026, based on a 18x EV/EBITA multiple.
• Upside Scenario: SEK420, with +4% organic growth in 2025 and +6% in 2026, based on a 20x EV/EBITA multiple.
• Downside Scenario: SEK240, with +1% organic growth in 2025 and +3% in 2026, based on a 13x EV/EBITA multiple.
• Additional Upside: 5% inorganic growth could add 8% to market cap.

Key Risks

• Global Construction Activity: Could negatively impact earnings and share price.
• Acquisition Integration: Potential challenges in integrating recent acquisitions.
• China Business: Continued weakness in China may affect overall performance.

Sustainability Matters

• Energy Consumption: Assa is one of the most energy-intensive companies in the sector, with 30.7mWh/EURm gas usage (vs. sector average of 19.6mWh/EURm).
• Carbon Footprint: Reduced by -36% in 2024 vs. 2019 baseline, targeting -25% in 2025.
• Energy Intensity: Decreased by -10% vs. 2023 and -40% vs. 2019 baseline.
• Key Questions for Management:
  • How to ensure continued reduction in energy consumption.
  • How to quantify scope 3 emissions to assist suppliers.
  • Plans to include ESG criteria in executive compensation.

Key Tables Summary

Financial Forecasts (Q2 and FY)

Valuation Metrics (FY20-27)

Analysts

• Rizk Maida, Lucas Ferhani, Martha Ford, and Simon Toennessen are the equity analysts involved in the report.
• All analysts certify that the views expressed are their personal opinions and not influenced by compensation.

Conclusion

Assa Abloy is positioned to deliver stable performance in Q2 despite FX headwinds and market uncertainty, with organic growth expected to remain in line with previous quarters. The company's defensive nature and potential for M&A-driven growth make it a key holding. With a low valuation and positive catalysts, the stock is re-rating is anticipated, supporting a Buy rating.