2015年-世界发展银行全球_Migration_and_Remittances___Recent_Developments_and_Outlook_27页_1mb

Summary of Migration and Remittances: Recent Developments and Outlook

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the state of international migration and remittances in 2014 and 2015, with a focus on their role in financing development. It highlights the increasing volume of migration, the fluctuation in remittance flows, and the factors influencing these trends. Additionally, it discusses the costs associated with remittances and how these can be reduced through technological innovation and policy reforms. The document also explores the potential of leveraging migration and remittances to support development financing.

Main Points

• Migration Stocks:
  The global stock of international migrants reached 247 million in 2013, up from 232 million previously. With an annual growth rate of 1.6%, the stock is expected to surpass 250 million by 2015.

• Remittance Trends:

  • Global remittance flows to developing countries reached $436 billion in 2014, a 4.4% increase over 2013.
  • In 2015, the growth rate is expected to moderate to 0.9%, with a total of $440 billion.
  • Remittances are projected to recover to $479 billion by 2017, in line with a more positive global economic outlook.

• Regional Highlights:

  • Top recipients: India, China, Philippines, and Mexico remained the largest recipients of remittances.
  • South-South migration: Accounted for 37% of the global migrant stock, surpassing South-North migration (35%).
  • Remittances as a share of GDP: Small economies, especially in Central Asia and the Pacific, are more reliant on remittances, with some countries like Tajikistan receiving 49% of GDP in remittances.

• Factors Affecting Remittances in 2014:

  • Uneven economic recovery in developed countries: The U.S. saw a strong recovery, boosting remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the weak Euro Area recovery reduced remittances to developing countries.
  • Impact of lower oil prices on Russia: The Russian economy suffered due to oil price declines and economic sanctions, leading to a 7.6% drop in remittances to Central Asia.
  • Exchange rate effects: Depreciation of the ruble and euro reduced the dollar value of remittances, especially in Central Asia and Morocco.
  • Tighter immigration controls: Especially in the U.S. and Russia, these controls affected migration patterns and reduced remittance inflows.
  • Conflicts and forced migration: The Syrian conflict and Boko Haram activities in Nigeria contributed to increased refugee flows and internal displacement, impacting remittance trends in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Remittance Costs:

  • The global average cost of sending $200 remained at 8% in Q4 2014, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the most expensive region at 12%.
  • Technology is helping to reduce costs, particularly in South Asia and Africa.
  • AML/CFT regulations are increasing compliance costs and limiting the entry of new players, which can drive up costs and encourage informal channels.

Key Information

• Global remittance flows:

  • 2014: $436 billion to developing countries.
  • 2015: Projected at $440 billion.
  • 2017: Expected to reach $479 billion.

• Remittance Cost Trends:

  • Global average cost of sending $200: 8% in Q4 2014, 7.7% in Q1 2015.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest average cost at 12%.
  • Technology is playing a key role in reducing costs, with mobile money services such as M-Pesa transforming remittance systems in Africa.

• Leveraging Migration for Development Financing:

  • Diaspora savings can be mobilized through diaspora bonds.
  • Reducing remittance costs and recruitment costs for low-skilled workers can increase the flow of funds.
  • Diaspora philanthropy and remittances as collateral for international borrowing offer new financing opportunities.
  • Sovereign ratings and debt sustainability can be improved by remittance inflows, facilitating access to international capital markets.

Outlook and Risks

• The 2015 growth rate is expected to be 0.9%, which is significantly lower than the previous average of 4.4%.
• Downside risks include:
  • A larger-than-expected impact of Russia’s recession on ECA.
  • A significant drop in remittances due to lower oil prices affecting demand for migrant labor.
  • Weaker job markets and tighter immigration controls in Europe.
  • Currency depreciation in remittance-sending countries against the U.S. dollar due to U.S. monetary tightening.

Regional Trends

• East Asia and Pacific (EAP): Remittances increased by 7.5% in 2014.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Remittances rose by 7.7% in 2014, but are expected to grow at 1.1% in 2015.
• Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Remittances declined by 6.3% in 2014 and are expected to fall by 12.7% in 2015.
• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Remittances increased by 5.8% in 2014 and are projected to grow by 2.3% in 2015.
• South Asia: Remittances grew by 4.5% in 2014 and are expected to rise by 3.7% in 2016.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittances increased by 2.2% in 2014 and are projected to grow by 0.9% in 2015.

Conclusion

Migration and remittances play a critical role in the economies of developing countries, providing a stable and significant source of foreign income. However, they are subject to economic, political, and regulatory fluctuations. The document emphasizes the need for policy reforms, technological innovation, and regulatory adjustments to reduce costs, enhance financial inclusion, and leverage remittances for development financing.